my projected income for csm

From the VOTE NO website-CSM shareholdings in other companies
[URL=http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_assets.htm]http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_assets.htm[/URL]

NAME; No of SHARES HELD; % OF COMPANY; SHARE PRICE; TOTAL VALUE
JABIRU, 117,787,353; 31.73%; $1.245; $146,645,254
BC IRON; 15,000,000; 28%; $1.55, $23,250,000
MITHRIL; 7,115,000; 19.99%; 0.435c; $3,095,025
REED RES; 12,300,000; 17.75%; 0.495c; $6,088,500
VITAL METALS;11,105,150; 13.74%; 0.74c; $8,217,811

LAST UPDATED 3rd May 07 [b]Total Value $187,296,590.00[/b]

So, that means CSM market cap currently $568M-almost a third is made up of other companies which Baxter can't fudge the values on or deliberately talk down their prospects.

You could argue then that CSM's profit from its Ni, chromium and manganese assets are from the smaller capital base of $381M.

My conservative H2 projections, based on info from CSM announcements, are as follows:
Mn income (AFTER mining costs) $18.9M
Cr income(AFTER mining costs) $25.1M
Ni income(AFTER mining costs) $32.7M (based on reduced target of 4000 tpa)
SUM $76.7M

Assume admin expenses of $30M, as it was in H2 '05 and H1'06.

NPBT $46.7M

Tax@30% = $14.0M

NPAT $32.7M, or 14.4 cps.
Remember this is projected H2 profit only. For full year, add $10.2M = $42.9 and PER 14.
PER 14 is not great, but H1 was average. If PER based on 2*H2, PER = 9.2.
Don't forget these are conservative numbers, chromium and manganese are jumping up in price, Ni will not be hedged come next FY, and more Ni should be produced as they reach richer orebodies.

To put it in perspective, 4000t Ni @US$45k/t and exch rate of 83c and cash cost A$7.5 per payable pound gives income AFTER mining & smelting costs of A$88M. If they can ramp up to 6000 tpa (should not be too hard given they projected 5000 tpa this year and 15000 tpa by 2009-11), this becomes A$132M. And this does not include Mn or Cr.

$2.28 a share? Gimme a break!