defab,
Good stuff again. Just one thing, CER is intending to unwind its hedge positions with CNP due to the board separation issue. Long-term I don't see this as a positive or a negative either way so to speak. CER will still need to enter into hedging contracts, the only difference being the counterparty will not be CNP.
From CER's point of view as a business this truly makes no difference, besides fro mthe obvious "counterp-party risk" if CNP went under and subsequently would not be able to meet it's obligations resulting from a favourable FX from CER's point of view.
There's also the upside of the (up to) 10% unhedge FX that will at least partially offet the net negative position from the hedge.
Either way, I agree that it's not quite a cash flow issue, particularly since they can roll the hedges forward, albeit with an alternative counterparty.
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my revised nta calc arrives at 1.711, page-41
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