My revised view of BCI

Hello peeps, I was lucky enough to stop out of half my holdings around 23c, this allowed me to stand back and take a less emotional view of BCI and as a result I've been fairly negative in my comments relating to BCI and I feel they were justified given the slide in SP to the 7c-8c range.

But... I now have a buy order sitting in the depth, and am contemplating loading up a little here given a few things that are happening and after reviewing the recent qtrly. I'm still not 100% convinced this is a great move, but some things to think about:

1. Spot price of iron ore has been rising, although not setting the world on fire. Futures were recently trading around $50 USD so that tells me the direction may well be north from here at least in the short-medium term and it's possible (not guaranteed) the bottom is in for iron ore especially given the next two points:

2. Bank of Japan just went negative interest rates; this could stimulate a nice kick in equities and/or commodities like iron ore.

3. China is also going forward with significant stimulus. It might not be enough to save the world but it might allow equities and iron ore prices to lift even further.

4. Recent quarterly was good, cash backing is around 22c-23c and may take further hits but the $2.5 million from Iron Valley was a massive item. Just think about how that number grows every time Fe prices rise - at the current price Iron Valley will probably inject $3 million into BCI next qtr. MIN are intending to ramp up production at Iron Valley so it may grow even further although I'm not certain of their planned volumes for the coming qtr.

So... even without the NJV operating BCI is leveraged to the price of iron ore but is spending pretty much zero opex relating to the mine - they just need to keep the BCI team lean, minimise salaries and they may well record an operating profit. In the current conditions they can chip away at repaying deferred royalties, disposing of stockpiled ore, poking around with a little bit of exploration etc. and they can do it in a timely manner rather than rushing into poor decisions and sub-par deals.

Anyway - this is my 2c worth and we shall see how things pan out from here but I get a feeling in my bones the cyclical pendulum is about to start swinging slowly back towards better times for miners.