my (second) last ever post on the plt thread, page-6

TTH

This 130k patient study in India (yes that's 130k) that commenced in 1999 used Digene/Qiagen's Hybrid Capture 2 HPV test (HC2).

Qiagen plans to introduce its HPV test to the devleoping world markets (ie. BRIC) with a similar test called the "CareHPV test". CareHPV uses essentially the same technology as HC2.

They do this so as not to commoditise their developed world markets where they currently sell HC2 at a list price of US$30. Note that the large pathology players like Quest and Labcorp only pay US$14 to $15 because of their volume.

These guys have been carefully planning their entry into cervical cancer screening for the BRIC markets for a decade and are ready to launch the product I imagine in the next 12-24 months with the help of the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation and this very comprehensive data set of a 130k patient study.

Pioneering any new market with a new product/technology takes many years of preparation and many tens of millions of dollars in launch costs. That it PLT's challenge with Truscreen as I see it.

Why would any major customer in BRIC commit to Truscreen in volume when they know CareHPV is about to launch?

For the life of me I cannot fathom how PLT can raise the required funding to get it there, particularly when it struggles to raise a few million in a SPP that has had 3 different closing dates.

cheers

PS... HC2's COGS is approx US$3.50 taken directly from their SEC 10-K lodged accounts, that is a gross margin of 84% (16% COGS) from an ASP of US$21. CareHPV should have a lower COGS than HC2.