My Take ON CVN so far....., page-58

Hi DirtyLarry,

re. Dorado

Sorry for the delay in responding.
I haven't done any DCF modelling for Dorado: hence, for what it is worth, my analysis/opinion is at the macro level.
I suspect that you were hoping for more detail that I have at the moment.
STO is hot to trot, so, stating the obvious, Dorado is a very robust project: add in exploration and it is very exciting.
The question becomes, "how much of this potential is in thecurrent share price?"
With a low degree of confidence, for the risked value of Dorado, Apus, Parvo, Roc and Buffalo, Iget a risk-adjusted valuation in the vicinity of $0.50.

Given that oilers are on the nose, and as a consequence, are trading at a significant discount to their valuations, I would say that CVN is fairly priced compared to other oilers.
CVN's value is dependent on the outcome of the imminent, extensiveand very exciting exploration program.

As a consequence CVN is higher risk and higher potential reward than many other oilers.
Factor in higher oil prices, if this is what you believe, then there is compelling value in many of the companies in the energy sector, especially those that have existing production. I would simply say that you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket.
Dorado production is a long way off, so interest in CVN may wax and wane once the exploration program is finished.
On the positive side, this may coincide with much higher oil prices by the time that Dorado come onstream.
Dorado funding is the other dynamic that more likely than not a negative overhanging the market.
I suspect that they need to raise capital to partially fund Dorado.If correct, this may happen prior to drilling Parvo and Apus.