My Take On CVN
I haven't decided if I will buy into CVN.
I think that there are some vocal people on this forum looking at the CVN story, which is a pretty good storey, through rose coloured glasses.
As a consequence, there is a danger that take a punt that is too large for their circumstances, i.e., they risk more than they can afford to lose.
Hence, I thought that I would share my thoughts to date.
My Background
I worked for BHP Petroleum, as a Programmer/Analyst in 1983 for a period of around 20 months.
I am not an expert, but I have been investing in the industry ever since, so I have learnt a fair bit over the years.
Dorado
It is possible, if not probable, that they will need to raise capital.
It has been posted that this was confirmed at the 2021 AGM.
I believe that funding (debt plus new capital and/or farm-out and/or other?) has to be in place in order to reach FID in mid-2022.
Timing od a Capital Raise (if that is the way they go):
IMO, due to prudent risk management considerations, it would most likely occur prior to Apus and Parvo results. This implies early 2022.
They may try and see Buffalo result, to get a share price kick.
Given xmas/new year break considerations, I suspect that they will wait for the Buffalo result given the high COS cited by Advance.
Buffalo
Is there oil in the Attic?
BHP developed and produced.
BHP believe that oil had not migrated into the attic structure, i.e., there were barriers to the oil migration path.
CVN, with the benefit of better technology, 3D seismic and processing power, have concluded that there are one or more migration pathways into the Attic structure.
I think that Advance has quoted a COS in excess of 80%.
This is oil in the Attic, but includes a sub-commercial accumulations.
So a chance of 4 in 5 of oil making it into the Attic.
How much oil is in the Attic
This appears to depend heavily on which of the possible pathways identified are rea.
So there is a possibility that a discovery could be sub-sommercial.
To pluck a number out of the air, let's estimate the chance of a commercial discovery as 75% or 3 in 4.
Obviously, the chances of the Attic being filled to the brim would be less.
Advance Energy asa Partner
Advance Energy has been listed for a short period of time, and did a capital raise to fund the Buffalo farmin.
They currently do not have the funds to finance Buffalo development in the success case.
Advance talk of debt funding.
It would not be possible to fully fund 100% with debt, so significant capital raise would be necessary.
The obvious question is
"What happens if Advance can'tarrange 100% funding?"
Is it on a best efforts basis, is there a time limit on funding, or does their50% interest revert back to CVN?
There is a lack of clarity around the deal.
The most concerning aspect for me!
Advance is a thinly funded minnow.
The fact that they couldn't attract a more substantive partner, to what they are presenting as a low risk project with compelling investment returns.
Obviously they would have marketed the opportunity to numerous potential partners, and Advance was the best that they could attract.
Is CVN for Me?
I haven't decided yet, but I would not have done this much work if the answer was no.
Anyway, you can either ignore me, or factor my ramblingsinto your thinking.
My only real advice, is to not risk more than you are comfortable to lose.
(20min delay)