Re SDG - keen to hear what other HCers think.I have assumed a...

Re SDG - keen to hear what other HCers think.
I have assumed a total write-off for Dubai. If you look at note 12 of the 1st H09 report, and rejig some numbers, net assets in Aus are $407m, and $230m international (Dubai mainly - all Dubai debt non recourse). This is after provisioning of $41m out of $241m for FY09.
Subtract provisioning of $190m in Dubai and $10m in Aus, and $10m dividends in Aus and you have net assets: Aus $387m and Dubai $40m. $1.32 ps. Net out the remainder of Dubai and you have $1.20 ps NTA approx (with 12 cents upside). Compare this with their announcement re buyback 27/3/09 NTAs of $1.15 Aus and 0.24 Dubai - I'll take their numbers).
They've had an adjusted return on equity of about 23% throughout the cycle. So over the cycle would hope for EPS 26c pa plus growth and upside from Dubai.
Good news is:
1. 26 cps is about 50% of current SP, so "current P to through cycle E" PE of 2 times.
2. In good times SDG traded at about 2 times NTA - so rebound to (say) $3.30 sp if no more Aus writedowns.
3. Dubai is upside on these numbers.
4. Buyback will improve these figures if done at approx current SP.
5. There will be incremental growth on these figures I woudl expect.
6. If I am wrong and returns are half what I think they will be through business cycle, EPS will be 13 cps and max SP rebound to $1.35. Still no disaster.