My take on the Current Market Correction, page-4

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21/09/21

15:54

Post #: 56241689
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Originally posted by The_Dread_Pirate_Roberts: ↑

It is not just Evergood (not so grand). It is the entire Real Estate sector that has been overheated for the past 15 years. Evergrand took in customer deposits and now cannot repay those as well as the banks. Several mid-major banks are exposed for over $2 trillion. Real estate has been a casino with investors buying units on speculation. What percentage is speculative is unknown. China real estate is especially opaque.

As to US budget, the Democrats are in a real fix. The more fiscally moderate Dems don't want the $3.5 triollion bill while the radicals have said they will not vote for the $1.5 trillion infrastructure bill currently stalled in the House unless they get the full $3.5 trillion in the other bill.

The US Senate is on a razor's edge. Their only advantage is the Vice President's tie breaking vote. Many senators are very unhappy with the spending and the attempt to re-shape the US economy without a clear mandate, which they do not have.

Biden has stumbled from the start and the Afghanistan debacle has hurt him badly. The AUKUS deal has caused major problems with the EU. he has lost any mandate he had and stands at 40% approval. One cannot believe a word he or his administration says.

Re the upcoming climate summit there is an elephant in the living room.Russia has cut NG deliveries radically and there is no NG in storage. Further, the wind that offshore windmill owners counted on simply hasn't been there for weeks. The UK is in crisis mode and may go to a 3 day work week if they cannot find the power resources.

The Continent is in deep trouble as Germany has decommissioned its nuclear and coal plants. France is the only exception. Extremely low NG stocks add to the risk. If there is a cold winter the entire green energy agenda will have to be reconsidered at the point of pitchforks. Citizens are not ready to freeze in their homes. For every GW of renewables there has to be a GW of backup. With the Greens tapped to win the German elections my guess is that there will be chaos. Ideologues are not pragmatic.

Whether this is a black swan event no one knows. Let's pray we get through it.

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what's interesting for me is how the CCP respond to the obvious social unrest that letting the property side go like it has.

You can't have your cake and eat it too in terms of a communist country playing market. I think the bigger long term issue will be how China restructures its economy and impending Cold War with the west.

LYC Price at posting: $6.75 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $10.01		Change 0.010(0.10%)		Mkt cap ! $9.363B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$10.25	$10.32	$9.91	$59.89M	5.951M

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1	60	$10.01

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$10.05	43558	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	60	10.010
1	1000	10.000
2	26604	9.990
2	2252	9.980
1	14725	9.970

Price($)	Vol.	No.
10.050	43558	1
10.060	6000	2
10.070	2481	2
10.090	33092	3
10.100	8201	1

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