LYC 0.45% $6.63 lynas rare earths limited

We will have to wait and see. Analyst are usually high. 19 Cents...

  1. 7,350 Posts.
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    We will have to wait and see. Analyst are usually high. 19 Cents a share times 900 M shares is 171 M profit. Now from first page of SAR for H1 202M revenue with 40.6M profit. now from Q4 report 465 M of revenue for year. So h2 had 63M higher revenue than than H1. Even if every penny went into profits, that would be 103 M in profits for H2, a total of 143 for year. or a PE of stock price 7.00 / 143M E/ 900M S = 44 PE I would be embarrassed to even repeat the number you claimed came from an Analyst and your careful calculations, unless I qualified it saying I did not believe it. We can drop this till AR comes out. Again my numbers are 100 to 120 M profit. Not EBIT or anything else. Sorry but taxes and interest have to be paid so that is money not available to reinvest in Company.

    Remember PE is not some mystical number it is very simple. I think it is best explained by inverting it. 1/44 =2.2% That means the company is only earning 2 % on what a share would trade for. The company will only earn 2% on its market CAP
    Better than bank rates right now but for how long.

    Here is a 90 year chart of S&P 500 PE. Note the average is between 10 and 20 Note how fast it has fallen whenever it has been over 30. I went back to 1/1/1945 and calculated the average S&P 500 PE Average it was 17.8. This was the end of WWII and the start of Americas growth spirt PEs were lower earlier.
    S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends

    If you think any company can sustain a market cap or SP that is even 35 X its earnings I would like you to explain why. The market is about investing in growth and there is no measurable growth with PEs over 20 that is still only a 5% growth rate. this assumes all money is reinvested back in. No dividends. No fancy bonuses for executives and things like that.



 
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