GDO 0.00% 30.0¢ gold one international limited

I 100% agree with Matt. A lot of rampers have moved into this...

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    I 100% agree with Matt. A lot of rampers have moved into this stock and have failed to acknowledge possible downside to this. I, like Matt, got on many months ago for the same reasons.

    I struggle to see how you can not see any increased risk from having 0 debt to having 210 million debt (or roughly 50% of market cap).

    It means we are significantly more leveraged to the price of gold. Before this transaction, the cashflows from Modder East would have been profitable unless price of gold dropped to less than 800. Now, if price of gold drops to 1000, we will possibly be losing money of Rand (depending on the puts etc)., AND we will be losing a significant amount of what cashflow we have left paying the interest on the debt. This would in turn diminish our chances of getting Vent up and running etc. etc. We could sell the asset, obviously at a discount or raise equity, but these would be to the detriment of longer-term returns.

    2 weeks ago GDO was undervalued at any POG> 1000. Now it is critical that POG stays >1200. Most people on this forum are gold bulls, but noone KNOWS where gold will end up- there are people who are strongly convinced gold will go up further and those that are convinced it will drop down. Given that GDO has no control over the long-term price- this is now a significant risk.

    Moreover, this debt fuelled purchase is not necessarily even capital well spent. I would have preferred our next 250 million be borrowed to fast-track Ventersburg rather than this.

    In short the risk has gone up many many many times (from virtually no risk, to significant). GDO is still probably the best goldie on the asx, but it certainly isn't a guarantee.
 
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