my thoughts

Definitely due to stong aussie dollar, a lot in the media today with increasing and continual strong OZ dollar over xmas, this will hurt QBE for awhile i feel. I know business channel had QBE at ~$27.00 as short term target a couple of months ago, but i don't think it will hit mid 24.50 anytime soon.

UNLESS

Increasing talk of major reports coming out next week till the end of the month, they are predicting bad results although 'Alcoa reported an unexpected third quarter profit.
'They predict that worse than expected results could cause the US sharemarket to drop 10-15%'
This means disappointing results could derail the US sharemarket and cause a similar pullback in the S&P/ASK 200 Index....and i quote 'which has recouped more than 50% since March'.

Now keep this in mind.

A) The old story goes, everything recovers in a W not a V.
B) The momentum cannot continue, i find it hard to BELIEVE one logical reason why it can.
C) Yes we could stabilize and plateau up and down, a few peaks and gullies, some bigger than others.
D) and finally, please dont take this the wrong way, there are people out there like me who want the sharemarket to crash again, and crash hard, and these people higher up will find any excuse in the world to create it.

I also have a little unlikely theory that i may as well share for those of you who have bothered to read this extremely long and possibly boring post.

I think a lot of people underestimate Australia as an economy, and country in general. We live in a very lucky country that offers a lot, the rest of the world looks at us a lot more than you think. The possibility of overinflated Dow due to our strong economy... We are only small fish in the sea unfortunately, and the rest the world simply will not keep up. The will be a big retrace firstly from the US than the rest of us...

Firday night geek of the week... Yeah !