my thoughts

I think is a positive that the prospective deal is a takeover offer rather than a sale of the Tamapakan interest. It is cleaner, and money goes quickly and directly to shareholders, rather than the taxation and capital return complications of the sale. Xstrata are on board (who frustrated the 2008 deal), virtually eliminating that source of risk. There is I guess an outside chance of a higher offer by a third party - now that there is an offer on the table, this should flush any potential higher offer out, though I think this is not likely.

Should have IRN got more than 1.28? Maybe, given the XPFS results and the stronger gold price. However, the 2008 takeover offer was fought out before the real crash happened in the 2nd half of 2008. Yes commodity prices are now strong again, but potential acquirers are not so hairy-chested as they were I think.

On balance, I am very happy.

angus