my thoughts

Hi All, What we are seeing is of the norm.

STB has had a massive run all the way to $6.25. Plenty of hype and excitement where most who wanted to buy in had brought in and those considering to sell held off. It was the peak, and since then it has dropped back(during the japanese disaster to low $3) and spiked up again to $5.25 after coming out of the trading halt last week Monday.

The selling being experienced is profit taking from holders who made Xbaggers, ppl who had brought in near the peak, and all in between. Couple this with few buyers and you have a dropping SP. This selling will see the SP drop to an oversold level(opposite of an over brought level it had at the peak).

Where will this level be at in terms of share price do i hear you ask? I do not know exactly, i will leave that to the chartist. But i do know that there will be a lot of bearish talk/sediment about STB during this time where most who have been looking at selling will sell out or have sold out. Thus, once again we will have a reversal as Teflon has been mentioning.

Earlier i have read a user post that he had brought in at near the highs and have sold out today. This is a very good indication that we might be at the point of reversal, or near, or at the very least halfway(though i doubt, i will explain below). There is also a few bears out and about which is also another indication although i would have liked to see more for confirmation. ;)

I have seen this happen many times, A speccy from a very low SP have a massive run due to many reasons but all having one thing in common when at the peak of its run, and it is HYPE/GREED! Hype/GREED of further massive gains. The last one i was involved in was LEG where i had averaged a 2.8cents buy price and watched it run all the way to 9.9cents while selling my first lot at 9.6 then 8.6 then 7.6 and my last lot at 5cents just before the Japanese disaster. LEG's SP is currently at 5.3cents, but LEG's run(pun unintended) was purely on hype since they had not even started drilling although they do have massive potential.

SDL's run would be more relevant to STB where over some months it ran from 10.5 cents to as high as 66cents and now a 47.5cents but went as low as 38/36cents(if my memory serves me right) recently. SDL's run is mainly on fundamentals(of course HYPE was involved) but fundamentals will hold the SP closer to its peak after its run than one that run on dreams/hopes and HYPE. If we compare;
SDL LEG STB
peak 66cents 9.9cents, $6.25
low 38cents 4cents $3.11
current 47.5c 5.3cents $3.87

Please, these numbers are off my head but they should be right or close to it. As we can see, SDL's drop in percent from its peak was lower then those of LEG and STB, but SDL's run was earlier than both LEG and STB so most sellers had sold out well before Japanese disaster and that played a slightly less negative factor to SDL's SP. STB's run was nearest to the Japanese disaster and that played a more negative factor.

I believe that STB's performance should bear closer to SDLs' than that of LEGs'. My belief is we are close to the lows and that we will find our equilibrium/fairvalue at low $4's as fundamentals will take over.

I think STB will play out similar to FMG and long term investors will be the ones that will benefit the most. Although there are more risk here than FMG had.

Over the next few weeks and months we should be getting more drill results and announcements on scoping study, JORC upgrade and the likes so this should be positive to the SP.

NOTE: i am no expert, and please do not take what i have said as advice. This is just my opinion. Also, please dont take it that i was bagging LEG.

Hoazo