from annual report:zinc production forecast to be between...

from annual report:

zinc production forecast to be between 130,000-140,000 tonnes of zinc;

lead production between 70,000-80,000 tonnes

so.................

zinc:

140,000 * $1.9/lb * 2200 (to convert pounds to tonnes) * 1.35 ( convert USD to AUD)

= approx 790 mill

lead:

80,000 * 1.9 * 2200 * 1.35 = approx 451 mill

total revenue = 1.241 BILLION DOLLARS!

now net profit margin after tax (NPAT/total revenue) lets assume will be 30% (which is similar to top notch margin producers ala JBM for example whom average anywhere between 30%-40% historically)

so thats 1.241 * 0.3 = 372 mill

note the 30% is the net profit 'after 30% tax' margin

cash costs are 70cents approx, but remember thats not total cost

so employing net profit AFTER TAX margin of 30%-40% is the way to go

EPS= 372mill/199.5

= $1.86/share

if we use a net profit margin after tax of 25% (as perilya is a higher cost producer than others , then...........

1.241 * 0.25 = 310 million

EPS: 310/200 = $1.55 per share

is there something wrong with these figures????? :) :)

you'd think so wouldnt you!

please everyone thats out there, anayse these figures and tell me what you think

dont forget, they get silver credits as well every yr from now on which is on top of the pre-paid silver money they got

I think a net profit margin after tax of 25%-30% is OK

because if you think about it

if TOTAL costs are $1.10 say, then the margin if they get a $1.90 avg price is:

80 cents profit/190cents = 42% margin pre tax

so after tax margin is 30% off the 42% margin = 0.42 * 0.70 = 29.4%

there we go - apprx 30%

these figures are MINDBLOWING!

lets say they make 155 cents per share using the more conservative 25% margin:

155 cents per share * 5 P/E = $7.75 !!!!

**** hey, im not a certified licensed analyst, and these fugures may be incorrect ,and are based on a very simplified EPS / PE analysis of a mining stock
go to you broker and ask for their opinion

the figures seem too good eh???