my valuation of pem most hc have nfi

due to close down of ops due to tragedy production of ZINC is now 100,000 tonnes:

Zinc 100,000 tonnes * 2200 (to convert tonnes to pounds) * 1.45 (USD) * 1.25 (for conversion to AUD based on 0.80US:AUD) = 398.75 million revenue

production of LEAD is 60,000 tonnes:

60,000 * 2200 * 1.45 * 1.25 = 239.25 million revenue.

total reveue = 638 million

use a Net profit margin after tax of 35%

638 * 0.35 = 223.3 mill NPAT

200 million shares plus options

So EPS:

223.3/200= 1.116

take off 25% for hedging: 1.116 * 0.75 = 83.7 cents per share

PE 5 : $4.20/share

PE 6 : $5.02/per share

Next yr, production from BELTANA to add 17.7-20cps to this 83.7 cps figure

Lets use a net profit margin of 30%:

638 total revenue * 0.3 = $191.4 million

191.4/200 = 0.957 pre hedged

hedged using 25% off : 0.957 * 0.75 = 0.7178 cents per share

* this is using Zinc $1.45; USD 0.80; Net profit margin after tax of 30%; taking 25% off for hedging

So in a CONSERVATIVE sense theyll make appr what the analysts have forecast on commsec!

So much for 50cps EPS, huh.

All ppl have to do is sit down for a minute and run simple figures!