Hi lord E,Hope you don't mind me copyng your excellent post to...

Hi lord E,

Hope you don't mind me copyng your excellent post to the UK BB.

Just one thing readers should be aware of. The prices arrived at are possible/reasonable forecasts for a "take out" price, rather that valuations in the strict sense.

Analyst NPV models so far suggest that a valuation done on that basis may be somewhat lower - but those models currently contain too many unknowns to be realistic. We'll have a proper idea of a valuation when a feasibility study is done.

I have a sneaky suspicion that the DCF valuation from the study will be rather lower than the valuation you give (due mainly to "time value of money") but that bidders like Areva, the Chinese etc would be prepared to pay a higher price (along the lines you suggest) for guaranteed secure supplies.

Even using the DCF methodology, I have little doubt that the value of Rossing South would be substantially higher than Extract's current market cap.

For these reasons I suspect that EXT s/hs would get more from an outright sale to a U consumer, rather than from a JV with a miner such as RIO or CAMECO. We'll know the truth when the feasibility study has been done - or when bids get slapped on the table, whichever happens sooner!

Cheers,

Mark