MSB 3.76% $1.03 mesoblast limited

My view for what it's worth

  1. 1,360 Posts.
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    Dolce for what its worth (forget our tit for tat for a minute) My take is as follows and mostly based on the recent Qtrly update which was provided in May, approx 4 weeks ago:

    1. Phase 3 significantly reduced for good reasons - Positive
    2. Recruting well in Nrth America - Positve
    3. Recruiting aggresively in Europe - Positive
    4. After review of first 175 patients by the Data Monitoring Committee, the DMA adviced for the tiral to continue as as. This happened in APRIL 2016. As SI said this is an important milestone for the MSB and trial. this is confirmation that results are good. - Positive
    5. Teva and MSB will provide a joint update on timelines for FDA, EMA regulatory submissions andf overall completion, including a confirmitory trial -Positive
    6. Japan - they prefer a partner with multiple partnership deal, not multiple partners.
    7. SI was askersd will you go to market for capital if Teva pull out. SI response was: we are not even contemplating that, TEVA has been a good partner and we are happy with the relationship.


    Based on all of the above:

    1. Is TEVA walking, i ind it hard to believe, with so much recent interaction with the FDA, get the tick of approval from ther DMA. The only indication of results is the tick from the DMA, they would not know other results, as the FDA put in protocols to ensure no one knows results, first interim results are in Jan 2017 i beleive, could be wrong here but definitely if TEVA are walking it has nothing to do with results

    Having said all of this they have the right to walk, the only reason i can see for them walking is change in strategic direction, no other reason.

    2. Could it be multiple product deal with JCR this is a real possibility because as SI said they are looking at one partner with multiple deals.

    The confusing part for me is the language in the trading halt, "Material developments relating to multiple assets. I dont beleive you can write down assets because a partner is pulling out, you would write down an asset in the results are poor and therefore the value of the Patent has been diminished.
 
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