my view on current matters

Hi guys,

Just thought I'd give my opinion and thoughts on all the current speculation going on at the moment with VPG.

Price Not Moving:
The price has been steady for the last couple of weeks and the bands are tightening. The news in the property sector is mixed, some saying that the UK and US have bottemed in the property cycle, while others are speculating that the Bubble still hasn't busted hard enough. The lack of price movement indicates uncertainty in the market, however it isn't just VPG. All of the REITs that I hold are experiencing a lack of movement. The reason I am buying is because VPG is currently good value, trading well below my estimate, which I'll cover later. It has room for its assets to devalue and still be cheap.

Recent Share Dumping:
The recent big share dumps are (in my belief.. remember only speculation) fund managers and insto's clearing their portfolio of rags (speculative stocks) before the end of year. This is common practice, their portfolio looks more attractive to long term investors in their end of year statements, and they dont seem to be as speculative (Ben Graham). I think this will continue up to christmas, and we should see the regular small cap January bounce for VPG.

My Current Value Estimate:
I currently value VPG at 18-20c per share, and will continue buying until these levels or the conditions change. The value of 27c tossed around these forums is optemistic, and I wont go as far as to say that I wont reach these levels soon, but I believe that the chance is small. This is my reasoning; NTA of about 20c + the DUKE that is unfactored + Potential Future growth puts this estimate right in the ballpark. However if it was to reach these levels then there would be no value left in it. let me ask, would YOU pay 27c per share? I wouldnt, and what makes you think anyone else would. Remember someone has to buy that 27c share. I would pay 18c to get some sort of value for money, 27c puts it too high in a sector where there are still many other REITS trading at a discount. There is value elsewhere, and people arn't stupid.

Note on EPS:
The VPG is earnings positive and cash positive, even though that the EPS in the last annual report was negative. The writedowns for property devaluations (1 off hopefully) was attributed to shareholders and caused a negative EPS. This should in no way reflect the true earnings capability of VPG if you assume that there is little to no devaluations left in store for us.

AGM:
Hopefully that AGM will reveal some figures that we can use to better gauge the position of this company. I'll let you guys know what I think after the AGM.

Remember this is just my opinion. Hope it clears up a few of your worries.

No need for luck, and Hold. SS.