I agree with regard to the sp in most respects. The sp is affected by expectations more than anything else. Valuations such as NTA, NAV etc are part of the equation, but there are still a number of stocks trading at better sp that have lower or -ve NTAs. The difference in part is the expectations as regards those stocks and performance/change to date. Further there are the types of investors. VPG appears to be heavily institutional - pension and managed funds and the like tend to buy into REITS for the longer term dividend cashflows amongst other factors not wothstanding capital gains. As far as VPG expectations are concerned, that's probably part of the problem. Unlike the majority of other REITs, VPG management has displayed a long history of not keeping shareholders or the market informed as to their activities. Further guidance from VPG looking at the past years at least reports is next to useless. So anyone tying to determine their expectations needs to look at the wider market situation, movements and more general expectations to infer a pattern relevant to VPG. From my perspective, as a long term (2-3+ year) holder, assuming VPG survives witout a fire sale, take over or other event, a sp anywhere around 50c is certainly not out of the question. Short term however, I wouldn't want to hazard a guess - after today with 12m dumped, some posters believe it's over. Of couse we don't know how many other shares are out there in a similat boat, so conjecture is pretty much useles without that information. Similarly the board has less than a 1:3 ratio of buyers to sellers, so the issue of determining the support level is difficult - if the sellers want to sell, then they sell, and unless buyers come out of the woodwork and prop up some levels, it would be even easier tomorrow to wipe out one or more lines.
VPG gets battered around by the market forces pretty heavily, and management continues to offer minimal information.For example the post by Nursery was from a 3rd party source. Taking a look through the VPG home site, and the only posts on the home page are the run of the mill mandated ASX announcements. Why they can't publish interest items at the least on their website communicating various activities and events astounds me. Most of us could probably do a half decent job for free. Even regarding the recent stock issue, management made the comment along the lines that shareholders favoured the stock issue to raise capital to pay out McCabe over other vehicles. I don't think any of use were consulted or informed prior, so I presume this information came from larger holders such as Orbis etc. In other words, us indiviudal holders are incidental and likely more of an annoyance (especially since the retail offer wasn't taken up in completion, but the insitutional side was over subscribed).
A long rant, and in closing about the only thing likely to impact expectations from a purely VPG perspective is the upcoming general meeting in a week. If that contains no relevant content, guidance or business plan for the upcoming year, then we'll continue to wade along this sp path for a while. And if that's the case, I would encourage holders to make more formal approaches to the company demanding both more and better information and communication.
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