my view on sundance

Morning all,

As you all know I am a true believer in the Sundance story and have even dreamed of retiring when the sp hits $5, which I honestly believe it could do if it finds a jv partner, finance and gets into production.

But one post on Wednesday night from a poster I respect worried me.

It got me thinking, what is my family is right when they say "Con you always think you are right" what if I am wrong?

So I decided to do some more digging and analysis and I also decided yesterday morning at the opening to take some money off the table at 42.5 cents.

Why?

I spoke to my friends in Perth, who are heavily invested in Sundance, and they told me they are hedging their bets. They took some money off the talbe at 52.5 again at 0.46 and were going to do the same yesterday at opening for 43 or 0.42.

They too still hold plenty of shares, but the global financial turmoil and the delay in news from Sundance has them worried.

My view is this, and again this is only my opinion.

The talks between Hanglong and SDL are bogged down, not on price, but on the onerous conditions Hanglong places on companies when it makes a takeover bid.

Once those conditions are sorted, then the focus will turn to price.

How long will this take? Well GJ is on record as saying he wants to enjoy his xmas, so realistically it could take another 8 to 10 weeks.

In the meantime the world markets are being hammered and I fear Sundance will follow them down.

What price can we expect?

I have come to the conclusion that the final price will be around 70 cents - but that is just my opinion.

I know, I know, Sundance is worth a lot more, we have a $100 billion dollars of iron ore in the ground and we've just scratched the surface, etc etc.

But the world has entered another dangerous phase and 70 cents is 70 per cent higher than yesterday's close and could well be 100 per cent higher by the close today.

So those who have been trading sdl may well prove to be the smart ones and walk away with the most cash.

Even is you buy in the next couple of weeks there is still good money to be made here.

I also believe that the chances of getting rid of Hanlong and getting a JV partner are almost nil.

My dream has been shattered - I hope I am wrong and nothing would please me more than for dozens of hotcopper posters to laugh in my face and tell me I am wrong.

But we will see.

It's going to be another horrendous day on the market today - good luck all.