My Way - Wednesday, page-2

Tuesday Evening Liqueurs, 16 February, 2016.

XJO up strongly +1.37% on heavy volume. Here's the chart:




The Bullish Falling Wedge is now close to being in play. Today's big yellow candle is reached up to the restraining line of the Wedge. A break above that is likely to be bullish.

The current level also marks an important horizontal resistance level. So we can expect the market to pause at this level. A break above would enhance the bullish credentials of the current move.

Before Noon, the XJO was in negative territory. From there on it was all up hill with a bullish finish. What happened around Noon? I haven't a clue - but we finished on the strong side of the ledger at the end of the day.

CBA went ex-dividend today - and that was a drag on the market. Here's the CBA chart:



We can see, however, that CBA sold off initially (expected) but recovered much of its ground today with the final result being a bullish "hammer" at the end of a downtrend. It also bounced off nicely from close to an important horizontal support level. All that is unusually pointing to possible upside action. Unusually? Banks often sell off after their ex-dividend date. So we need to watch for bullish action from here on, as it might just point to an unusual scenario where CBA actually rises after its ex-dividend date. Weird stuff. But that's what we need to look for.

Below is a chart of the rolling One-Month activity in the various Australian sectors. I've tweaked this chart just a little because of the volatility recently in the Energy sector. Instead of the raw data, the chart shows relationships based on 5-Day MAs. That tends to smooth out the excessive highs and lows which occur in daily data.



What I'm looking for here is some sign that we're moving from a RISK-OFF market to a RISK-ON Market. That should become apparent by a change in the relationships between the XAO and Utilities (XUJ) and Bonds (IAF)

Both XUJ and IAF are performing better than XAO. So, we still have a RISK-OFF Market.

Miners, however, remain the place to be.

RB.