MYX 1.95% $4.52 mayne pharma group limited

If you are a long term MYX investor then I'm sorry to hear that!...

  1. 418 Posts.
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    If you are a long term MYX investor then I'm sorry to hear that!
    Anyone buying in shortly before or during is in so much pain....

    The market cap may have been $2b but was it ever a $2b company??

    In 2016 the gross profit was only 170m and net profit only 37m....is that worth a $2b market cap?
    Gross profit and net profit was doubled in 2017...despite this the share price halved.

    Since TEVA follows the same pattern I can only assume this was in response to the market conditions at the time.... not MYX per se.

    You can also see the massive speculative spike after the TEVA deal.... crazy market caps is the market's fault, not the companies fault.

    I don't actually know when the generics started getting squeezed in the US but for MYX from 2018 onward it was just getting worse and you have write downs since then.

    On the Mithra deal... I have indeed looked at the figures and have done some calculations...
    You can find that here https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/54127794/single - point out any substantive issues....

    The upfront costs seem to be about A$110M for a product that with the current sales target indicates a NPV10 of A$936M .... that seems good to me?
    What is not in the calculation is supply fees and percentage fees which I'm going to assume is covered by the 25% operating costs... maybe.

    What do you see as bad about the deal?
    If indeed it works out as intended.
    This product took 20year of development afaik and Mithra had to still buy out another company...would be interesting to see what their development costs where.

 
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