NAB/CBA - more in it, page-13

Sorry about that i go tthose figures wrong. Went back and found the reports and have pasted them below.

It still paints mirky waters ahead for the building and banking sector as the 'slowdown in the building sector' occurs.

cheers chooch...


Key Points
Housing finance slumped by 7.2% in February.

The main drag was a massive 25.5% correction in loans for the construction/purchase of new dwellings. That in turn primarily reflects a pull-back in first home buyers in the market. In seasonally adjusted terms, first home owner loans dropped by 22.5%.

The established loan market, while off 3.3%, continues to hold up at an historically very high level.

The housing finance forward indicator points to a downturn in housing activity in the second half of the year, a view we have held for some time.


Private sector housing approvals fell 2.5% in February, as the run of first home owners seeking the full grant draws to an end.

Australia’s trade balance deteriorated to a deficit of $604mn in February, as solid consumption growth supported imports while exports were little changed.
Building Approvals
Private sector housing approvals fell 2.5% in February, slightly worse than market expectations of a 1% fall. This follows a 1.3% rise in January, which most likely reflected the last trickle of first home owners to receive the full first home owners’ grant of $14,000 flowing through the system. The grant has subsequently been wound back to $10,000, and will be further reduced to $7,000 in the middle of the year.

The bring forward of first home owners into 2001 will lead to some significant falls in the leading indicators of the housing sector in the near future. This is consistent with a sharp fall in housing construction activity in the latter half of 2002.

International Trade
Australia’s trade balance deteriorated further in February, with a deficit of $604mn, down from $233mn in January. The deterioration was all in imports, which increased 3%. Imports of consumption goods rose a strong 6.9%, reflecting continued robust household consumption. Intermediate goods were up 1.1%, but capital goods (an input to business investment) fell 0.3%. Exports were little changed in the month. There have now been 4 consecutive trade deficits, following on from 9 consecutive surpluses.

These trends are basically the result of Australia’s growth outpacing that of our major trading partners. Exports in February were 2.6% lower than a year earlier; in contrast, imports were 9.1% higher over the year. The appreciation of the AUD could also be starting to play a role - against the USD the AUD is now 10% above its September 2001 low of USD0.4855.

Market Reaction
In the hour after the release of today’s estimates at 11:30 am, the yield on June 90-day bank bill futures was largely unchanged at 5.04%. This followed the 12 basis point fall from 5.16% to 5.04% that occurred after the inaction on the interest rate front from the RBA at 9:30 am. The Australian dollar fell from USD0.5337 to USD0.5320 following the releases, after being only down slightly from USD0.5340 prior to 9:30 am.