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10/05/20
08:13
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Originally posted by SaltyInvestor:
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When I reset my investment strategy many years ago I decided that I would only buy the highest quality companies. For financial exposure I analyzed stocks I could hold around the world and ranked them on factors such as their Tier 1 Capital, M&A history, return on equity and dividend stability. I would also test their customer service by going into their branches and calling staff to find out about their products to see how engaged staff were as of course it is they who make a bank. I grouped companies into “Excellent”, “Average” and “Poor” buckets. When I did my analysis on NAB I felt it deserved its own special category called “Lehman’s Brother”, because I felt on the basis of... *disaster-after-disaster (MLC, Clydesdale, GWB, Aviva, Royal Commission); *management across its history paying out nearly all profits as dividends at the cost of meeting APRA-directed capital buffers/considering keeping the bank safe. Did everyone miss that NAB needed to effectively cheat to meet its “unquestionably strong” capital ratio target and unlike other banks, did so inorganically? *NAB exhibited more dividend volatility than any other bank and had an inability to exceed 99cps in payments as management were playing a game of trying to keep their head above water (costs kept rising but profits didn’t). Didn’t last did it? *NAB staff came across as the most lazy, entitled and inept individuals relative to other banks and showed no sense of ‘ownership’ in the business they worked for, so they didn’t really have an interest in helping customers in a meaningful way. NAB Business Bank and nabtrade customers may sympathise. ... that if Australia ever went under a Depression scenario and if one bank had to fail or require a taxpayer bailout it would be NAB in all likelihood. You may laugh and think this is ridiculous, but the fact the market took NAB’s share price to a 1996 low tells you how confident investors were feeling about NAB’s situation and risk profile relative to the other 3 pillar banks + Macquarie. Oh and they did have to dilute you too for money as well. Meanwhile staff at CBA would welcome you with a coffee and take hours to explain their products to you without even pushing for a sale. You could sense the passion and sense of ownership. Their & Macquarie’s dividend and balance sheet has proven to be somewhat of a safe haven at this time. Meanwhile stocks like Visa and MasterCard have been 10-baggers in 10 years. NAB meanwhile has burnt all your return even after dividends over 10 years - and your franking credits meant nothing. After all that, NAB shareholders are wondering if they should put more good money after bad.
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Thanks Salty, I don't think many people would argue your points. No doubt NAB is a cyclical pig of a stock. But it is cheap, probably the cheapest out of the big Aussie banks. The SP is still about 90% BV. Admittedly VUK is often less than 40% BV and European banks consistently trade below BV in this low interest rate environment. So there is an argument for some bank exposure, but in a modest way that is aware of the risks. For reference I also hold a number of the other financials you mentioned - Visa, Macquarie. But knowig these businesses well over a number of years they are completely different to a bank like NAB. And the price is completely different! NAB is a fraction of the price of these on almost any measure.