The key date is 7/2, when they provide their first quarter...

The key date is 7/2, when they provide their first quarter trading update. Interestingly for all of 2012, whenever they announced quarterly trading results or half-year, full-year results, the results have always disappointed and the share price inevitably tanked, but only to regain losses and set a new near term high. The trick has been in getting out a few weeks or so before the next trading update/results announcement.

If they announce another weak result with around $1.4 billion in cash earnings, I expect share price to tank by $1-1.5 but to bounce back and breach $28.50 before next ex-div date again. If there is a positive surprise, $30 may be very easily within reach but I don't like the odds for that.