http://www.smh.com.au/business/nailed-to-the-wall-20100108-lz01.html (excerpts - very long article - nothing really new - but at least it's not another 10% yoy capital gain chuckler) No price for guessing housing SHORTAGE comes to the rescue. Oh Dear !
Developers hope housing shortages will help shrug off the woes of 2009, writes Carolyn Cummins.
The year just gone was an annus horribilis for the construction and development industry. It was only a swag of cash that the Federal Government injected into the system that kept many companies afloat. For the real estate investment trusts, close to $20 billion was gouged from investors justm to keep the vehicles operating.
Savanth Sebastian, a CommSec economist, said the near 10 per cent fall in October in housing lending marked the largest monthly decrease since March 2008.
In annual terms, lending is still falling. It is down almost 4 per cent on a year ago, even if in recent months a rise in housing finance has emerged as one of the key drivers in helping the economy to resume growing.
However, further increases in interest rates are in sight, and the first-home owners boost is being phased out, so it is likely action will be needed in other areas of the economy in coming months.
The impact of higher interest rates and the removal of the first-home buyers grant boost will test the durability of the housing recovery over the coming months.
However, over the longer term the chronic undersupply of housing, combined with population growth and economic recovery, should stimulate activity, Mr Mee said.
