Next month we should hear the full results from Tullow's 3D & 2D...

Next month we should hear the full results from Tullow's 3D & 2D seismic program in Namibia.

What do we know so far?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140610/pdf/42q3hgmnh71xnm.pdf

Page 23 of the presentation above shows DeGolyer & McNaughton estimates of each lead totaling 8.7 billion barrels. These are mean estimates in the right-hand column based on legacy 2D data..

The key leads already covered by the new 3D seismic are Albatross, Petrel, Gannett & Seagull.

If you look at page 20 from above it shows the location of the leads and identified with letters from A - Q.

Now look at page 2 from the July EL0037 Exploration Update below:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140723/pdf/42qz445qxfkpqh.pdf

Lead A/B appears to be Albatross - it was a 782 million barrel mean estimate lead and now mapped under 3D and assessed by Tullow as a 422 million barrel mean estimate prospect.

The more accurate 3D 'prospect' estimate is 54% of the 2D 'lead' estimate from the previous existing data.

Looking again at the map, it appears that 'O' is the Seagull lead which is split as Seagull North & Seagull South and lead estimate is 1.55 billion barrels. Going by the map a rough estimate would put Seagull N at 40% of the lead & Seagull S at 60%.

40% puts Seagull N at around 600 million barrels, which if we apply the same 3D 54% reduction as Albatross, then may convert to a 320 million barrel mean estimate prospect.

Lead 'M' appears to be Gannett and it's lead estimate is 1.16 billion barrels which then may convert to a 620 million barrel mean estimate prospect.

Finally, lead 'C' appears to be Petrel - 610 million barrels down to a 320 million barrel mean estimate prospect.

Seagull N -  320 mmbbls
Gannett -  620 mmbbls
Petrel    -  320 mmbbls

The good news is that these 3 prospects are stacked one above another - one drill will test all 3 prospects.

I believe that PCL will soon announce a mapped 3D triple stacked drill target of between 1 - 1.2 billion barrels of oil (gross unrisked mean) and that this will prove to be an attractive target ranking above Albatross for Tullow's first well in the block in 2015.

This is just my opinion based on the available information & diagrams so far.