I'm not sure this accounts for the Warrants. If there's 4m...

I'm not sure this accounts for the Warrants. If there's 4m shares placed in the IPO, the purchasers will also have the option of buying another 4m any time within the next 5 years at the original purchase price. Assuming the SP goes up over the next 5 years, there's little change they won't exercise these Warrants. Therefore the dilution (at some point at least) will be double what you've estimated. Or have I got something wrong here?