I think the NASDAQ100 has to go lower because of the surge in...

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dealer64

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15/03/21

12:04

Post #: 51769826
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Originally posted by bricklebar: ↑

This is a 'perfect' downsloping H&S daily pattern with increasing volume on the neckline breaking & a target of approximately 11500. I took 3 short trades (2wins,1loss) last week. The two wins were closed out when the price hit the lower BB on the hourly timeframe. Monday night is critical with the price closing a few pips above the neckline on Friday. I don't think we are necessarily out of the woods yet.

In rare cases a H&S top is confirmed by a decisive neckline penetration and still prices do not go down much farther or in this case (retest). False moves in H&S are extremely rare . The odds are so overwhelming in favour of the dowtrend continuing, once a H&S has been confirmed, that it pays to believe the evidence of the chart no matter how much it may appear to be out of accord with the prevailing news. (Edwards & Magee Pg 55).

My trade plan is to short between 12650-600 with a stop a few pips above the 100ema which was respected 12800. Feel free to express your views, especially if you think I'm way off with the weekly, for example, showing the index is still in a primary uptrend.

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I think the NASDAQ100 has to go lower because of the surge in the US long bond rate but it is holding reasonably well at present.

I would watch the 200 moving average which is currently at 13257, as a pop above this would bring a lot of money back in. Sharemarkets have a tendency to rally into Christian festivals such as Easter, so don't be surprised if it does go up.

The trade strategy appears sound though

Value at posting: 8,076.6
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0 Great analysis

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