Well done des,From the first CCZ report.The OZ market has missed...

Well done des,

From the first CCZ report.

The OZ market has missed the two biggest parts of this story. We dont have to go the market with a product and sell it, Sanofi will be using twice as much as we can produce at the current plan which means we could be twice as big as predicted just on their requirements alone. The othe point is the Gross margin of 45%............Woolies and qantas etc work on margins less tha 5%.

New products, select,clinical,IV
USA 34 times PE margins.............

From CCZ #1

Valuations are not demanding

Our numbers for UNI are conservative. UNI is indicating potential production volumes of 210m by mid
2012 which would generate net earnings of $50m plus. The joy of UNIs RTF business is that it will generate
Gross Margins of 45% and will have virtually no go to market costs given the limited number of
pharmaceutical company customers.
There is some risk associated with the commissioning of the pilot line but UNI have already proven the concept in fact the three parties tendering to construct the pilot line have also done this. Hence the biggest risk for us is commissioning delays.
Post commissioning of the pilot line the biggest risk we see is UNIs ability to meet the product demand. UNIs current forecast is for RTF production in calendar 2016 of 890m units which would give UNI a 20% market share. This is conservative in our view given the clear competitive advantage that they have and the market growth of 15-20% pa which is capacity constrained. Even on conservative estimates the total prefilled market is forecast to have grown to 4.4bn units pa by 2016. Given its circa 40% market share SA on its own will be selling 1.6bn prefills pa half UNIs planned production