Nat Gas Price, page-14

Well for goodness sake I go out and nearly shoot my age and then come home to see this senseless price drop.

Nevermind, SXY is a long term story. A Growth Story.

I have been studying this oil/gas thing for ages and it continues to amaze me.

The following thoughts go through the brain
1. Oil Capex over the last 4 years has been next to nothing.
2. The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year and finds only 3.
3. Oil consumption next year will be at least 1% higher than 2018. And is forecast to increase until at least 2030
4. USA shale will probably add a million barrels per day to keep the executives in bonuses. One day it will be known as  a ponzi.
5. The switch to renewables has not yet factored in how to replace all the Govt fuel taxes currently collected through oil consumption.
6. Gas consumption is forecast to grow by a third within the next 5 years.
7. Saudi and Russian oil output is pretty well maxed out. Venezuela is a cot case.
8. Spare oil production capacity is down to 1.5 %
9. USA inventories have been climbing due to the Chinese ceasing purchases.
10. Saudi are going to cut production.
11. Shorters  are going to get burned... I read the sad story of a reasonably sized Broking firm that went into liquidation today shorting Natural gas. They made a terrible mistake. The same could happen with oil.  I would expect a good bounce.

If anything goes wrong in the Middle East, or elsewhere,  then lookout.

Nothing moves without oil.