NatH2 Exploration and Stimulation - AI Generated Deep Research

While it's quite on the news front and we're all wildly speculating about what we may hear next from our HYT team. Here's an AI generated deep research piece to get you through your Sunday afternoon. Enjoy, but remember, this is AI generated and does not represent my personal advice on whether to invest in natural hydrogen or Hyterra.

Natural Hydrogen Exploration and Stimulation:Science and Emerging Developments

Introduction

Naturalhydrogen – also known as white hydrogen or geologic hydrogen –refers to molecular hydrogen (H₂) found naturally in the Earth’s subsurface.Unlike green hydrogen (produced via renewable-powered electrolysis) or bluehydrogen (reformed from natural gas with carbon capture), white hydrogen isgenerated by geological processes and could be extracted directly from theground. Scientists have long known that hydrogen occurs in nature (forinstance, at certain seeps and wells), but only recently has there been aconcerted effort to assess its potential as an energy resource. The allure isclear: if substantial reservoirs of natural hydrogen exist, they could providea carbon-free, zero-emission fuel that requires minimal processing,essentially a “holy grail” for clean energy. Indeed, proponents suggestgeologic hydrogen “could be the world’s first new primary energy source in100 years”, a “skeleton key” for decarbonization if it can befound and produced economically. Major investors and governments have takennotice, spurring a flurry of exploration projects and research initiativesaround the world. However, tapping this resource at scale presents significantscientific and engineering challenges, requiring new approaches to explorationand potentially even stimulation of hydrogen-generating processes in thesubsurface. This report surveys the science behind natural hydrogen, theconcept of stimulating its production, and the latest developments from leadingexploration companies Koloma and HyTerra – including their technical progress,commercial outlook, and industry “rumors” about what they may have discovered.

Researcherssample naturally occurring hydrogen gas at a seep in Indonesia’s CentralSulawesi province. Such seeps demonstrate that geological processes can produceand accumulate hydrogen in the subsurface. The challenge is finding (orenhancing) these occurrences at scales viable for industrial energy use.

Geological Formation of Natural Hydrogen

Naturalhydrogen is continually generated within the Earth through severalwell-understood geological processes. A primary mechanism is water–rockreactions such as serpentinization, in which water infiltratingiron-rich rocks (like peridotite in the Earth’s mantle or crust) undergoeschemical reactions that produce hydrogen gas. Another source is radiolysis,where naturally occurring radioactive minerals emit radiation that splits watermolecules, releasing hydrogen. Deep Earth degassing can also contribute:hydrogen may be generated in the mantle and migrate upward through deepfractures. In addition, biological processes can play a role – certainsubsurface microbes produce hydrogen as a metabolic byproduct. These processesoften occur in specific geological settings. For example, ultramafic andiron-rich basement rocks (e.g. ancient cratons or ophiolites) are favorable forhydrogen generation, and deep faults can act as conduits that allow hydrogen toaccumulate in overlying porous formations.

Despitebeing generated continuously, hydrogen is a small, highly diffusive molecule,and it reacts readily with other elements – meaning it doesn’t always stickaround. Significant accumulations of hydrogen gas (analogous to oil ornatural gas reservoirs) are expected to be relatively rare or hard to access.Hydrogen can escape to the surface or get consumed by microbes, and its ongoinggeneration in any given locale is thought to be slow in human terms. As Dr.Dirk Smit – a geophysicist and former Chief Scientist at Shell – observes, “largehydrogen reservoirs analogous to hydrocarbon reservoirs are… less likely toexist or [be] easily accessible” due to the slow generation rates and highreactivity/diffusivity of H₂ in the subsurface. Indeed, most natural hydrogendiscoveries to date have been modest seeps or pockets often found by accident(for instance, hydrogen was encountered in water wells or mineral explorationholes). A frequently cited example is a borehole in Mali that has beenproducing hydrogen to generate electricity for a local village for years – aproof of concept of sustained natural hydrogen production, albeit at smallscale. Overall, the occurrence of natural hydrogen tends to be patchyand linked to specific geological conditions, and the industry is stilldetermining what a commercial-scale “hydrogen field” might look like. Earlygeological studies and recent mapping by the USGS point to certain regions(e.g. parts of the Midcontinent USA, ancient shield areas, and ophiolite belts)as having elevated potential for subsurface hydrogen, but extensive explorationis needed to verify where substantial accumulations exist.

Advantages and Challenges of Native HydrogenProduction

If viablenatural hydrogen reservoirs can be found (or created), the benefits would besignificant. No energy-intensive manufacturing is required – thehydrogen is already there, generated by Mother Nature. This means productioncosts could be much lower than for green hydrogen, which currently demandscostly electrolysis infrastructure and abundant renewable electricity.Furthermore, because no hydrocarbons are involved, the carbon footprint isminimal, avoiding the CO₂ emissions of steam methane reforming (grayhydrogen) or the upstream energy losses of carbon capture (blue hydrogen). Inessence, white hydrogen offers a pre-made clean fuel that could beextracted using modified versions of conventional drilling and welltechnologies. Early estimates suggest that if sizable accumulations areconfirmed, production at scale might be achievable in certain regions,potentially supplying hydrogen at costs competitive with or lower thanmanufactured hydrogen. Indeed, Koloma’s CEO has hinted that geologic hydrogencould undercut other hydrogen sources and become a cornerstone energy resourceif the exploration gamble pays off.

However,the challenges are equally significant. First, finding large deposits ofhydrogen gas is a frontier endeavor – unlike oil and gas, there is noestablished playbook or extensive drilling history to draw on, and hydrogenoften wasn’t measured in past drilling. Most known hydrogen-rich occurrences(e.g. a well in Kansas with ~56% H₂ in 1982, or small seeps in variouscountries) were isolated finds. It remains uncertain how hydrogen accumulatesin the subsurface: Do economic volumes require a continuous generation sourcefeeding into a trap, and can that outpace losses? Researchers note that manyhydrogen seeps might not correspond to large reservoirs, and trappingmechanisms (like salt domes or non-reactive caprocks) might be needed topreserve hydrogen accumulations. Even if a pocket is found, sustainingproduction rates could be difficult if generation is slow – a hydrogen wellcould “go flat” unless it is continually recharged by ongoing reactions.Additionally, hydrogen is a very light gas, so transport and storagepose economic challenges; it may need to be used near the source or converted(e.g. to ammonia) for delivery. These uncertainties make geological hydrogen ahigh-risk, high-reward frontier. As Koloma’s founder Pete Johnson cautioned, “It’snot a done deal or a sure bet. But if it works, it’s going to have a hugeimpact”. The exploration efforts underway are as much about conceptdemonstration as they are about resource discovery – proving whethernatural hydrogen can be accessed in meaningful quantities and flow rates. Earlyencouraging results have fueled optimism (and significant investment),but the path to commercial production will require overcoming these geologicaland engineering challenges.

Stimulating Hydrogen Production in theSubsurface

Given thediffuse and slow-forming nature of natural hydrogen, scientists are activelyinvestigating ways to stimulate or enhance hydrogen generation and flowin underground “production zones.” The idea is to borrow techniques from othersubsurface industries – e.g. shale gas, geothermal, or mining – to engineerhydrogen reservoirs where nature alone might fall short. Dr. Dirk Smit has beena vocal proponent of this approach. In a 2024 lecture, he drew analogies to theearly shale gas revolution: initially, gas in impermeable shales was deemedinaccessible until horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing unlockedit. Similarly, Smit argues that “hydrogen flow optimization and stimulationof natural geological processes are much less outlandish than is perhapscurrently believed”, suggesting that new engineering methods couldradically increase hydrogen production rates in a sustainable way. The key, henotes, is developing “a new and very rich field of geoscience andengineering” focused on hydrogen – for example, understanding the thermodynamicsof deep hydrogen-generating reactions and how to speed them up or sustainthem. This might involve creating the right chemical environment in thewellbore or reservoir (for instance, ensuring a steady supply of water toiron-rich rocks), managing pressure and temperature to favor hydrogen release,or using stimulation techniques to open pathways for hydrogen to migrate into awell. While hydrogen-specific techniques are still in their infancy, there areearly experiments aiming to test these concepts.

One avenueof research is the “engineered hydrogen” approach in ultramafic rocks(rich in olivine and other minerals that produce hydrogen when altered). TheUniversity of Colorado, for example, received a grant to study ways tostimulate hydrogen generation from peridotite formations. Similarly, a U.S. startupcalled Eden GeoPower has partnered with the government of Oman to explore in-situhydrogen production in Oman’s peridotite ophiolite belt. The concept is toinject fluids or otherwise enhance water-rock interactions in these formationsto accelerate serpentinization and thus generate hydrogen on demand. Inparallel, the U.S. Department of Energy’s ARPA-E launched a $20 million programin 2023 dedicated to geologic hydrogen, part of which supports novel extractionand stimulation technologies. These initiatives treat the subsurface almostlike a natural “hydrogen reactor” – the goal is to create a hydrogenreservoir where geology provides the ingredients, and engineering provides acatalyst or pathway. While still theoretical, early laboratory and field testsare aiming to show that such methods can measurably increase hydrogen yields.Even short of actively generating more hydrogen, optimizing flow isanother target: techniques like hydraulic fracturing or reservoir stimulationmight free hydrogen gas trapped in tight rock pores or mineral matrices, akinto how fracking liberates gas from shale. The first generation of hydrogenexploration wells are testing simple versions of this idea by looking fornatural fractures or minor stimulation to see if hydrogen flow can be improved.The Sue Duroche-3 well (drilled by HyTerra in Kansas) encountered naturalfractures in the reservoir that could “enhance permeability” forhydrogen movement, hinting that managing the fracture network will beimportant. Overall, the emerging consensus is that purely passiveextraction of geologic hydrogen might not yield large volumes, but with smartengineering – “stimulation of natural processes” in Smit’s words – wemay unlock far greater potential. This is a cutting-edge area of research, andif successful, it would herald a new hybrid of mining, petroleum engineering,and geochemistry specifically geared toward zero-carbon hydrogen fuel.

Koloma: Stealthy Exploration with BigAmbitions

One of themost-watched players in this nascent industry is Koloma, a Denver-basedstartup devoted to finding commercial quantities of geologic hydrogen. Foundedin 2021, Koloma quickly gained attention by raising an extraordinary war chest– over $350–400 million in private funding in just a few years. Backedby prominent climate-tech investors like Bill Gates’s Breakthrough EnergyVentures, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and others, Koloma hasbeen touted as a potential leader in what could become a “gold rush” fornatural hydrogen. The company’s strategy is deeply “data-driven” andtech-heavy: Koloma hires experts from oil & gas and mining, employsadvanced AI and geophysical surveys (even partnering with satellite explorationfirm Fleet Space for real-time 3D imaging of prospective hydrogentraps), and keeps a tight lid on its proprietary exploration results. Koloma’sinitial focus has been in the U.S. Midcontinent (Kansas), which somestudies flag as having favorable geology for hydrogen (due to ancientcrystalline basement rocks and deep-seated faults). Starting in late 2022,Koloma’s operating subsidiary High Plains Resources quietly drilled aseries of test wells in Kansas. By early 2024, the company had completed aninitial five-well program in Clay County, KS, aimed at gatheringsubsurface data and sniffing for hydrogen. Encouraged by the results, Koloma(via High Plains) announced plans to drill 4–7 additional wells in 2024in neighboring Kansas counties (Washington and Marshall, along the Nebraskastate line) – these were intended as the first “production wells” if allwent well. At local town hall meetings, a company geologist disclosed that theyhoped to start pilot production by late 2024, pending success in thosewells.

Bymid-2024, rumors began to circulate that Koloma had indeed made adiscovery. In mid-2024 a Koloma representative indicated they had “foundsignificant concentrations [of hydrogen] in one of their wells in Kansas”,though without revealing exact figures. This tantalizing hint, combined withKoloma’s ability to raise massive funding in successive rounds, led industryobservers to speculate that the company “must have drilled something”noteworthy. An anonymous source in the sector pointed out that “you don’tget [$90M + $250M] in [funding] and drill bonkers… One has to have drilledsomething” to justify such investor confidence. In other words, it’s widelysuspected that Koloma hit a hydrogen-bearing zone of meaningful size orconcentration during its Kansas drilling – enough to convince backers to pourin more capital. Indeed, a February 2025 press release hinted that Koloma had “demonstratedsignificant hydrogen reserves in the United States” already. Whatexactly has been found? Koloma isn’t saying publicly, which has only fueledthe intrigue. The company has gone mostly silent in media, declininginterviews and carefully avoiding specifics. In January 2025, when S&PGlobal pressed Koloma’s spokesperson about reported production plans, sheresponded curtly that “We are not aware of a production well or [specific]plans… We will share updates when there is meaningful news”, emphasizingthat they follow industry norms on disclosure. Koloma clearly prefers to keepits results proprietary until it nails down a competitive advantage orconfirmable commercial discovery.

That said,piecing together the available information suggests Koloma’s Kansas wells didencounter hydrogen. High Plains’ team publicly stated they were “reallyencouraged by the test wells… which is why we are moving forward withproduction wells”. They also conducted 2D seismic surveys in thearea to refine their geologic model and choose new drill sites. By late 2024,observers expected Koloma to attempt flowing one or more wells to provesustained hydrogen production. As of early 2025, Koloma had not announced anycontinuous production, and it’s possible the company is still analyzing data ortrying different completion techniques to get hydrogen to flow at commercialrates. Notably, hydrogen-bearing formations could be tricky – for instance, ifthe hydrogen is coming from diffuse fractures in basement rock, a well mightshow high concentrations in gas samples (percentage-wise) but still needstimulation to yield high volumes. Aaron Mattson, a consultant familiarwith natural hydrogen projects, commented that Koloma’s find was “significantconcentrations… The degree to which it can be commercially extracted remains tobe seen”. This underscores that discovery and production aretwo different hurdles. Koloma’s current status, based on informed speculation,is that they are likely in an appraisal phase – they’ve identifiedhydrogen in the subsurface (perhaps in multiple zones or structures in Kansas)and are now delineating how extensive it is and whether it can be economicallyproduced. The company’s enormous funding suggests confidence that a breakthroughis possible, but until they publicly flow a well or declare a reserve, detailswill remain scarce.

In terms ofcommercial positioning, Koloma has been maneuvering to expand its reach.In early 2024, they signaled interest in global opportunities by partneringwith Xcalibur and Fleet Space to apply advanced geophysical surveys forhydrogen exploration worldwide. More recently (mid-2025), Koloma made its firstinternational acquisition – purchasing 2H Resources, an Australianhydrogen/helium exploration outfit, from Buru Energy. This deal gave Koloma aportfolio of exploration licenses spanning South Australia, Tasmania, andWestern Australia. It indicates Koloma’s intent to be a global leader innatural hydrogen, securing prospective acreage on multiple continents. Withover US$380 million in capital raised, Koloma can afford to chasehigh-potential targets in the U.S. and abroad simultaneously. The company’svision, as stated by CEO Pete Johnson, is to turn geologic hydrogen into amainstream energy source – enabling “large-scale hydrogen production anddispatchability” akin to how oil and gas are produced and distributedtoday. All eyes are on Koloma for an announcement of a pilot production or aquantified discovery. For now, the rumor mill suggests they have found ahydrogen-rich zone in Kansas (perhaps with concentrations reported to berelatively high, say tens of percent hydrogen in gas samples), but whether thattranslates to sustained flow of hydrogen (and how large the reservoirmight be) remains unconfirmed. Koloma’s tightlipped stance only heightensanticipation that big news will come once they have fully assessed theirfind or initiated production. In the meantime, their aggressive fundraising andexpansion speak louder than words: it appears Koloma is confident thatnatural hydrogen will yield commercial results, and they aim to be at theforefront when it does.

HyTerra: Pioneering White Hydrogen on the ASX

WhileKoloma operates in stealth mode as a private venture, HyTerra offers awindow into natural hydrogen exploration through a publicly listed company.HyTerra (ASX: HYT) is an Australian-based junior explorer that became the firstcompany on the ASX dedicated to “white hydrogen”, debuting in 2022. Incontrast to Koloma’s secrecy, HyTerra shares many details of its work withinvestors. The company’s flagship project is the Nemaha Natural HydrogenProject in Kansas (USA), where it is exploring an area along the NemahaRidge – a geological structure with known hydrogen occurrences. This region hashistorical precedent: a well drilled in 1982 (the “Scott #1” well) just west ofHyTerra’s leases famously encountered up to 56% hydrogen in the gas –one of the earliest documented high-H₂ wells in North America. Building on thatclue, HyTerra secured ~6,500 acres of leases around the area and, withtechnical and funding support from partner Fortescue Future Industries (FFI),set out to drill new exploratory wells. In July 2024, HyTerra even brought onDr. Dirk Smit (freshly retired from Shell) as its Chief Geophysicist tostrengthen the technical team. By late 2024, all permits were in hand, anddrilling commenced on HyTerra’s first well, Sue Duroche-3, in ClayCounty, Kansas.

HyTerra’sresults came swiftly and were exceptionally promising. In early 2025,the company announced that Sue Duroche-3 had encountered “some of thehighest natural hydrogen concentrations ever recorded”. Laboratory gasanalyses confirmed hydrogen content up to 96.1% in the samples from thewell. This essentially pure hydrogen (with only minor traces of other gases)stunned observers and “validates historical findings from the same area”(the 1980s well), proving that the Nemaha Ridge play indeed hosts ahydrogen-rich system. The well, drilled to ~3,450 feet depth, penetrated ~1,100feet of sedimentary rock and then ~2,350 feet into the Precambrian crystallinebasement. Notably, the highest hydrogen readings were associated not with thedeepest basement, but with a carbonate formation (the Lansing Limestone) abovethe basement. This suggests that hydrogen generated in the basement could bemigrating up and getting trapped or accumulated in porous sedimentary layers –an encouraging scenario for extraction. While drilling, real-time mud loggingdetected multiple hydrogen-rich zones, and wireline logs indicated there is potentialreservoir development (e.g. measurable porosity and even signs of dolomitization,which can enhance pore space in carbonates). The well also encountered naturalfractures and even elevated helium levels at depth, a bonus that couldadd economic value if the gas is produced. In short, HyTerra’s first drillconfirmed both the presence of high-purity hydrogen and that the geologyincludes reservoir-like features (porosity, traps, fractures) that could allowit to accumulate and flow.

Drillingrig at HyTerra’s Sue Duroche-3 well in Kansas (2025). This exploratory wellconfirmed hydrogen concentrations up to 96%, one of the strongest geologichydrogen shows on record. The well is now suspended for evaluation, with plansfor re-entry to test production flow and monitor reservoir behavior.

Thediscovery at Sue Duroche-3 instantly raised HyTerra’s profile as a front-runnerin natural hydrogen. As the company noted, such a high concentration of H₂means “less processing would be required to produce commercial-gradehydrogen”, improving the economics if a sustainable flow can beestablished. HyTerra wasted no time charting next steps. The well wascased and suspended pending further tests, and HyTerra announced plans to re-enterSue Duroche-3 for additional work. They outlined a program of downholegas sampling, extended gas monitoring, and possibly flow testing toevaluate productivity and reservoir characteristics in situ. Essentially, thecompany wants to see if the hydrogen will refill or continue coming outover time (which would indicate an active source feeding the reservoir) andwhether the formation can deliver gas at usable flow rates. Concurrently,HyTerra immediately moved the drilling rig to a second site – the Blythe13-20 well, about 1.4 km from the first – which spudded in mid-May 2025.This second well will test another part of the play and hopefully extend theknown hydrogen zone. By having multiple wells and a long-term monitoring well(Sue Duroche-3), HyTerra aims to build a picture of the hydrogen system –its extent, pressure, replenishment rate, etc. The company is also refining itsgeological model as more lab results come in from gas samples and coreanalysis.

From a commercialand strategic standpoint, HyTerra is positioning itself to capitalize onthis discovery. It highlights that it holds 100% of the leases in itsKansas project area, meaning it controls any resource that might be developed.The project’s location is in the U.S. industrial heartland – near existing ammoniafertilizer plants and petrochemical facilities that currently use hydrogenfrom conventional sources. This proximity could simplify futurecommercialization, since a ready local market for clean hydrogen exists(e.g. a fertilizer plant could potentially take HyTerra’s hydrogen via pipelineor on-site supply). HyTerra’s partnership with Fortescue (which provided atleast A$21.9 million funding) indicates that larger energy players are watchingclosely; Fortescue’s green energy division could be interested in scaling upany successful pilot. Additionally, HyTerra’s finds include helium (avaluable gas) co-produced in small percentages, which presents a dual-revenueopportunity. As one of the few publicly traded hydrogen explorers, HyTerra hasbeen quite transparent: its market updates have drawn attention to the “record-setting”hydrogen levels and framed the project as validation of the geologicalconcept of white hydrogen at scale. The company’s stock saw increasedinterest after the Kansas well result, and its market capitalization (aroundA$55 million as of May 2025) reflects both the excitement and the remainingrisk – it’s substantial for an exploration junior, yet a fraction of what aproven reserve would be worth. HyTerra itself emphasizes that global naturalhydrogen exploration is “still in early stages”, and that it is a firstmover with a chance to define a significant new resource play.

Lookingahead, HyTerra’s immediate goals are to carry out the flow testing andmonitoring to see if a commercial well can be realized. If the hydrogenflows at sufficient volumes and replenishes (even slowly) from the naturalgenerating reactions, HyTerra could move to declare a contingent resource andeventually plan pilot production. It might start with a simple separationfacility on-site (to strip out the ~4% of non-H₂ gases like CO₂ or methane) andthen compress the hydrogen for transport or local use. The timeline is stilluncertain – much depends on the data collected in the next few months – butHyTerra’s progress is a strong proof-of-concept that has bolsteredconfidence in the broader natural hydrogen effort.

Commercial Outlook and Industry Implications

The pursuitof natural hydrogen has rapidly evolved from a niche curiosity to a burgeoningfrontier industry in the past two years. The successes and challenges ofKoloma, HyTerra, and a handful of other pioneers will likely determine whetherthis concept becomes a viable segment of the clean energy market. Commercialoutcomes are front-of-mind for all stakeholders: investors have poured tensof millions into these projects on the premise that natural hydrogen could be alow-cost, scalable complement to manufactured hydrogen. The early fundingactivity is striking. Aside from Koloma’s nearly $400M war chest, otherstartups globally have raised significant capital – for example, France’s 45-8Energy attracted over $29M, and Australia’s Gold Hydrogen raised about A$35Mvia IPO and follow-on after its initial drilling campaign. Even governmentbodies are investing; the U.S. ARPA-E program and the USGS are funding researchand joint industry projects, while Australia’s federal and state governmentshave provided grants and updated regulations to kickstart hydrogen exploration.This influx of support suggests a strong appetite for a breakthrough.

From a technical-commercialperspective, a key question is how soon and how much hydrogen canactually be produced. As of mid-2025, global production of geologicalhydrogen remains minimal – essentially pilot-scale, with only smallexperiments (like the Mali well) demonstrating continuous output. NeitherKoloma nor HyTerra has yet sold hydrogen from their wells; they are still inthe exploratory and appraisal phase. However, there are optimistic targetsbeing floated. High Plains (Koloma’s unit) had hoped to have initialhydrogen production by late 2024 in Kansas, which indicates the companiesenvision moving to field trials quickly if results are positive. It would notbe surprising if Koloma, for instance, installs a pilot production system onone of its Kansas sites in 2025, even if just to prove it can consistentlyextract hydrogen and perhaps fill a few cylinders or supply a local end-user.Koloma’s partnership and investor list hints at the commercial pathways:its backers have interests in green ammonia, jet fuel, and otherhydrogen-to-product value chains. This implies that if natural hydrogen isavailable, it could feed directly into those industries (e.g. a fertilizercompany might prefer to buy geologic H₂ if it’s cheaper than running anelectrolyzer). HyTerra similarly has mentioned nearby ammonia facilitiesas potential off-takers. So the commercial strategy for these companies likelyinvolves integrating with existing industrial hydrogen demand. In the U.S.Midwest, large fertilizer plants use ammonia (and thus hydrogen) in hugequantities – a successful hydrogen well could find a ready buyer in such aplant, which would save on natural gas feedstock and CO₂ emissions by switchingto green/white hydrogen.

Anothercommercial aspect is the co-production of helium. Both Koloma andHyTerra have noted helium readings in their wells, and Koloma’s acquisition of2H Resources in Australia was partly motivated by helium prospects. Helium is ascarce, high-value gas often found in similar geologic settings (produced by radioactivedecay in basement rocks, just like some hydrogen via radiolysis). If a naturalhydrogen project also yields helium, it can significantly boost the economics –helium prices are high and production volumes needed are small. This provides ahedge; even if hydrogen flows are modest, helium could make a well financiallyviable.

Looking at industrydevelopment, we see the formation of associations (like in Australia) andearly regulatory frameworks specifically for hydrogen exploration. Thislegitimization is important for commercial scaling – companies need clearrights to the hydrogen they find (mineral rights traditionally didn’t accountfor H₂ gas). Both Kansas and Nebraska in the U.S. have been friendlyjurisdictions, granting exploration permits for hydrogen; Australia is in theprocess of block releases for hydrogen acreage. As more wells are drilled, we willlearn what a “good” natural hydrogen well looks like. Is it high concentrationthat matters most (purity), or is it flow rate and volume? Most likely, both.For example, HyTerra’s 96% H₂ is great for purity, but if that well onlyproduces a small flow without stimulation, it might not be commercial byitself. On the other hand, a well with lower concentration (say 20% H₂, 80% N₂or CH₄) but strong flow might actually deliver more hydrogen per day – it wouldjust require gas separation on the surface. So the metrics to watch will be sustainedflow rates of hydrogen (in kilograms or cubic meters per day) and the sizeof the reservoir (how long can it produce).

Dirk Smit’sinvolvement with HyTerra and engagement in academicforums (MIT, Oxford, Utrecht) underscores that big players are watching andcontributing expertise. Smit’s view that hydrogen geoscience can develop“relatively quickly” suggests a belief that, with the right talent (often drawnfrom oil & gas) and R&D, the gaps in knowledge can be filled in years,not decades. If Koloma or HyTerra demonstrably produces hydrogen and startsdelivering to a customer, even at a small scale, that will be a breakthroughmoment for the industry – proving it’s not just a science experiment but abudding commercial reality. This could trigger a cascade: more capital flowingin, more drilling in regions like the Midwest, perhaps re-entry of old wellsthat showed hydrogen, and acceleration of the engineered production concepts.

In summary,the commercial outlook for natural hydrogen is cautiously optimistic. Onone hand, no one has yet reported a large-scale field of hydrogen thatcan compete with a shale gas field in energy output – the concept isstill being proven. On the other hand, the ingredients (geology, technology,market demand) are aligning in a way reminiscent of other energy revolutions attheir dawn. Just as shale gas went from zero to 20% of U.S. gas supply in adecade, some believe natural hydrogen could surprise the world. Companies likeKoloma and HyTerra are effectively today’s wildcatters, drilling in unchartedterritory. The next 1–2 years will be critical: if they can demonstrate even amodest but steady hydrogen production, it will answer skeptics and likelyunlock larger investments and partnerships (perhaps with major energy companieslooking for a slice of the “next big thing”). Conversely, if these early wellsfizzle out or prove non-commercial, the field might retreat to more researchuntil better methods are devised.

Conclusion

The questfor natural hydrogen combines cutting-edge science with the age-olddaring of energy exploration. Geologically generated hydrogen offers atantalizing vision: a clean energy source produced continuously inside theEarth, ripe for harvesting with minimal carbon footprint. Recent research hassolidified our understanding that hydrogen is indeed generated by processeslike serpentinization and radiolysis, and evidence from seeps and exploratorywells shows it can accumulate in certain settings. Yet the Earth’s hydrogen iselusive – often diluted, hidden, or trickling out in remote locations.Overcoming this requires innovation. Pioneers like Dirk Smit advocate foractively stimulating hydrogen production, effectively speeding up nature’schemistry in subsurface “reactors” to make a new energy industry possible. Theearly efforts of Koloma, HyTerra, and others have moved this idea from theorytoward reality. HyTerra’s striking 96% hydrogen find in Kansas and Koloma’sbold drilling campaign backed by hundreds of millions in funding suggest thatwe may be on the cusp of answering the pivotal questions: Can we findcommercial natural hydrogen, and can we produce it sustainably?

The storyis still unfolding. Koloma’s secrecy and HyTerra’s public cheerleadingrepresent two facets of the same evolving narrative – one of intense interest,cautious optimism, but also the recognition of many unknowns. In the comingyears, expect to see more “wildcat” hydrogen wells, more refined explorationtechnologies (from satellite imaging to downhole sensors specifically for H₂),and possibly the first pilot plants supplying native hydrogen toindustrial users. The commercial prize is significant: a domestic source ofzero-carbon hydrogen could accelerate the decarbonization of industries likefertilizers, refining, metals, and heavy transport by providing a cheaperfeedstock. It could also complement green hydrogen by reducing the overall costand pressure on renewable electricity resources. However, to reach that point,the pioneers will need to demonstrate that natural hydrogen is more than ascientific curiosity. They will need to show sizeable volumes and flows– enough to matter in the energy mix – and do so safely and responsibly(ensuring that extraction doesn’t lead to unwanted side effects like seismicityor groundwater issues, for example). Encouragingly, the industry is alreadydrawing on the best practices of oil/gas (for drilling), mining (forexploration data), and science (for reactive processes) to forge a responsibleapproach.

Inconclusion, natural hydrogen sits at the intersection of geology and theenergy transition. It is a field characterized by both excitingbreakthroughs and the humbling complexity of the Earth’s subsurface. Theresearch of experts like Dr. Dirk Smit and the exploratory forays of Koloma,HyTerra, and their peers are rapidly expanding our knowledge. If the optimismholds, the next few years could see the emergence of a new industry converting “whitehydrogen” from a rare oddity into a strategic pillar of clean energy. Ifnot, the lessons learned will still be invaluable, potentially guidingengineered solutions to harness the Earth’s chemistry. As of mid-2025, theconsensus is that natural hydrogen is no longer science fiction – it’s areal phenomenon with real companies betting on it. The final verdict on itscommercial viability is pending, but every new well and research study bringsus closer to knowing whether a hydrogen “gold rush” beneath our feet willmaterialize, or whether the Earth’s simplest element will remain, for now, justbeyond our full reach.

Sources: Recentreports and expert insights have informed this assessment, including industrynews from S&P Global, Canary Media, and Geoscientist, as well aspublic disclosures from HyTerra and partnerships involving Koloma. Dr. DirkSmit’s perspectives were drawn from his 2024 MIT lecture description. Thesesources collectively illustrate the state of natural hydrogen exploration andthe evolving strategies to stimulate and commercialize this potential energyresource.