BBI 0.00% $3.98 babcock & brown infrastructure group

nathan's bbi restructure., page-19

  1. 7,746 Posts.
    maybe my logic is flawed, so i wont bring up my opinion on this particular matter after this post. its seems to have annoyed a few ;

    I guess i was using pure maths, in its simplest form. To me if we restructure after dbct sale and Beppa accept 60c(3xBBI@20c, 2.1bil shares) and a cornerstone investor invests $600mil(3bil shares)

    the order really is irelevant. if its beppa concert, then cornerstone investor buys in we get :
    improved balancesheet of $700mil(beppa)+$600mil(investor)
    new shares on issue of 2.1bil(beppa) + 3bil(investor)

    if we do it backwards and the investor buys in first, then we convert beppa, the investor is still in the same position. same balance sheet, same shares on issue.

    the ONLY way a corner stone investor would be WORSE of is if BEPPA holder suddenly wanted more than 60c (3xBBI), which would only happen if SP fell from 20c.

    If the cornerstone investor see potential in BBI then he is expecting SP to rise. it wouldnt be out of question for SP to rise to 33c(certainly realistic in 3years time, but probably sooner). BBI can at any point between now and 2012 offer early redemption.

    what would be worst case scenario for cornerstone investor? BBI refuse to offer 60c to beppa now. Beppa in turn refuse to accept any future offer below $1(out of spite). BBI let beppa mature, and need BBI to be trading at 33c in 2012 to breakeven.

    if its trading at 25c, then we issue 4xBBI instead of 3xBBI, but just as likely go the other way and trade at 40c meaning 2.5xBBI or better.

    While still keeping there options open on refinancing the beppa or onmarket buybacks.

    I WILL NOT MENTION IT AGAIN, SO YOU CAN ALL SLEEP BETTER.

    CHEERS
 
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