National Economic Cabinet needed

Originally posted by moorookamick: ↑

Thank you for that Osi,

The USA is actually in a bigger mess than Aus because the US has relied on high end manufacture (eg: aircraft, hi-tech equipment and Silicon Valley IT) but of course "Made in China 2025" has challenged/changed US competitive advantage in these high end products # & services.

The US analysis linked below is lengthy & detailed and well worth reading because it addresses US deep seated fears that if the US does not take immediate and comprehensive action (not just balancing trade with China) that the US is in dire straits with respect to its high end manufacturing industry and its acces to these global markets.

https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/d1c6db46-1a68-481a-b96e-356c8100f1b7/3EDECA923DB439A8E884C6229A4C6003.02.12.19-final-sbc-project-mic2025-report.pdf

IMO, Trump is doing the opposite to what the US needs when he cut the Jan 15th US/China trade deal. The deal give us suppliers preferred access to the Chinese market in ag & energy raw exports (wine is an exception) rather than US high end goods which ,up to 2015 , US Authorities assumed
that US manufacturers would gain unfettered Chinese market access.

While the Trump January deal puts money in farmers pockets , it simultaneously takes money out of the Battlers pockets who have to pay more for
what was their Walmart bargains.

our Government followed Trump in anti-China rethoric not realising that while Trump was running a $300 billion trade deficit with China , we were
running a $45 billion USD ($61 billion AUD) surplus with China. Of course China is now dishing out a "Trump balance of trade" treatment to us
which will balance our trade with China within a year. The first shots have been fired:
(a) ag exports .........................................Minus $15 billion
(b) Chinese inbound tourists ..................minus $10 billion
(c) Chinese foreign students...................minus $5 billion
(d) Wine:.................................................minus $2.5 billion

That leaves $33.5 billion in future thermal coal, met coal , LNG etc.
(all IMO only)

Since the GFC, China demand for these exports have significantly increased our prices so logically the sudden drop off of Chinese demand will have the opposite effect, IMO. Domestic prices of beef & wine are already dropping with Tassie salmon soon to follow, IMO.

Unlike the USA (as outlined in the above link) all we have to do is to add value to our raw ores & energy exports, diversify trade away from China dependance , improve our trade surpluses (the choice to do nothing will drop our marginal global surplus to a massive $50 billion+ deficit which will knock the bottom out of our AAA rating IMO.)
& our GDP and distribute the wealth equitably (not to a handful of billionaires)
Cheers
MM

# The US biggest manufactured product export is aircraft and Covid-19 will knock the ass out of that for at least 2 years, IMO.

Expand

The outline of China's "Made in China 2015" & its US Government critique clearly highlights the differences in the Two Systems and that, in turn, affects how both sides think:

China plans & the US follows the market which is code for following Big Business :

US Political/Economic Model:

-Big Business-Military/industrial Complex including the CIA
-Government & the Political System driven by lobbyists & political donations
--Small business and the workers

While the Chinese model is:

-Government led by the CCP & the PLA
-Big Business & STA embedded with CCP
-Small business and the Workers.

Aussie model:

-Your call but dont leave out the ACTU...eh?

(If this manifestation distresses some far Right Ideologues, then please seek advice from your local Fuhrer for fatherly advice...if not Bolt 'ill do)

Apart from the US internal threat of social upheaval arising out of an ailing economy and an excellerating wealth gap, global US soft power
is being eroded by China because China has/ is demonstrating to the 3rd World and emerging economies that it has performed better
than the USA in taking hundreds of millions out of poverty over the past 30 years because for them survival comes before ideology.

IMO, our biggest National Security threat is still Indonesia who now has a bigger GDP (PPP adjusted) than Aus , is growing at twice the speed of Aus, is retaining its resource wealth better than Aus, has a serious ideological Muslim conflict with Aus (remember the Bali Bombings in retaliation
to us sending troops to ME Muslin Countries) and the humiliation of its East Timor defeat by Aus over 20 years ago.

Add to that Indonesia's economy being supercharged by Indonesia's participation on China's OBI and , IMO, we have a prescription for a muscled-up-tooled-up-armed-up Indonesia. We are already supporting the "Free Papua" movement but what happens later if Indonesia re-takes east Timor
supported by China for its Oil & Gas resources? As we flippantly say: "How would you be..eh"

So I'll reiterate my mantra in onle long sentence for those with an attention span longer than a gnat:

-"We should industrialise now by downstream processing some of our minerals to meet global demand and diversify trade and economic dependance away from China, add to our trade surplus & GDP, share the consequent wealth fairly (like Noray or Saudi Arabia) rather than among the billionaires, develop nuclear energy and make our own nukes and set up a missile defence system like Israel."

If China wants to give us a military shock it will be by backing Indonesia, not via direct confrontation just as the USA is supporting India today
in its borer bingles with China ,sending an Indian destroyer to the South China Sea and threatening to block the Straits of Malacca through which
70% of China's oil is shipped from the Middle east.

If we want to play in the big league then we have to tool-up, earn the lollies and arm ourselves to the teeth while maintaining domestic harmony via a fair/equitable distribution of wealth # rather than sniggering at China from behind the coat tails of Uncle Sam from where we'll inevitably get a black eye (some may say that black eyes dont matter...eh?)

# Something Aussies have fought and died for in the form of a "fair go for all"