The Russians will keep grinding down and stretching the UA...

The Russians will keep grinding down and stretching the UA forces until they break. In the Avdiivka area the momentum of gains is certainly picking up pace, and if Chasov Yar goes that area will go critical for the UA as well. Opening up new fronts with fresh troops north of Kharkov and around Sumy or even Chernihiv makes sense. If the UA reacts by sending more troops there they weaken the already critical fronts, if not the Russians can push their advantage in the new areas. Also troops being transferred from one front to another become very vulnerable to Russia's increasing air supremacy.

All going to plan, on May 11th the UA losses as reported by the Russians:
- Sever Group (Kharkov): 170 troops, 3 AFV, 4 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 2 SA systems (and 34 taken prisoner)
- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 300 troops, 1 tank, 1 AFV, 10 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces
- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 550 troops, 4 tanks, 1 APC, 6 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces
- Tsentr Group (Donetsk south): 390 troops, 5 AFV, 3 motor vehicle, 6 artillery pieces
- Vostok Group (southern front): 160 troops, 2 AFV, 5 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces
- Dnepr Group: 50 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces, 1 SA system

Thats 1,654 lost troops including prisoners. With under-reporting it could easily be 2,000 in one day. Then 5 tanks (including 3 Leopards), 12 AFV/APC, 30 motor vehicles (underlining the lack of armoured vehicles), 46 artillery pieces, 3 SA systems

These loss levels, which are totally unsustainable, will only get worse for the UA. They will become utterly dependent upon "technicals" (SUVs/trucks with machine guns) and infantry while totally lacking in artillery and air support. At the same time as the Russians are becoming much better at defeating drones and are saturating the front with their own drones.

This is a very good short piece on how the NATO planners totally miscalculated and how the Russians are able to grind down the UA with loss ratios of 8:1 and higher (and they will go higher with the UA denuded of armoured vehicles and artillery). A Drone's Eye View of the Ukraine War

Posted by: Roger | May 11 2024 15:35 utc