John DayParticipantDifferent Day...

John Day

Participant

Different Day https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/different-day

Gilbert Doctorow, Nothing to worry about? South Korea sounds the alarm
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday’s Financial Times informed readers about the red carpet that was rolled out for Vladimir Putin at his various stops in and around the North Korean capital during his two-day stay there. They spoke of the Russian folk songs which local artists performed in Putin’s honor. They mentioned that various state to state agreements were signed but said almost nothing about the contents.
Today the FT has taken a very different approach to Putin’s visit in a feature article entitled “Japan and South Korea sound alarm over Putin-Kim military pact.” Lo and behold, Seoul has read the text of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that North Korea issued and discovered that it contains: “a pledge to deploy ‘all means at its disposal without delay’ to provide ‘military and other assistance’ in the event that one of the signatories was invaded or in a state of war.”
The FT goes on to cite the South Korea’s foreign ministry’s expression of regret over the strategic partnership: “ …co-operation between Russia and North Korea ‘should not undermine regional peace and stability’” Seoul warns “that their co-operation on military technology would violate UN Security Council resolutions.” Those resolutions, by the way, are up for renewal in the not-too-distant future, and Putin has said from Pyongyang that Russia will veto any extensions...
..For some time, Russia’s chattering classes have speculated about possibilities for enlisting some of North Korea’s one million man army to help their forces in the ground war in Ukraine. Now, under conditions of the newly signed military alliance with Pyongyang, these same Russians are saying that should NATO forces enter Ukraine to join the fight against them, as Emmanuel Macron has been urging, then Russia may invite 50,000 or more North Koreans to lend a hand to their cause. Moreover, they note that the North Koreans have some very impressive artillery pieces to bring with them to the fight.
If that kind of talk on Russian television is being ignored by the military attaché in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow I would be very surprised.
In closing, I mention that the fuss raised by Seoul over the Russian-North Korean military alliance was the subject of a 10-minute interview I gave to Iran’s Press TV this morning. The link is here: https://www.urmedium.net/c/presstv/129882

Putin’s very long day: Simplicius, SITREP 6/20/24: Putin Signs Defense Partnership in Historic Pyongyang Trip
The visit comes directly after Russia intimated a mirror response to the West for its arming of Ukraine with advanced weaponry that can strike Russian territory. Not surprisingly, Putin’s visit was highlighted by a signing of a weighty ‘strategic document’ which included the implied possibility of Russia arming North Korea with its own stable of advanced weaponry…
Documents signed by the leaders of the DPRK and the Russian Federation:
Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea;
Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on the construction of a border road bridge over the Tumannaya River; [This new bridge, higher than the old bridge, will allow Chinese ships to pass through to the Sea of Japan and back. Important!]
Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on cooperation in the field of health, medical education and science.
Agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership between the Russian Federation and the DPRK provides for assistance in the event of aggression against one of the participants, Putin…
..Beyond the perfunctory pledges for cooperation in various civil fields, Russia and NK intend to construct a new road bridge at their border to better facilitate inter-state travel, as well as the big one: a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ for assistance in the event of aggression. [Lets Chinese ships through, too!] …
..There is the obvious fact that this represents an immediate signaling by Putin that he wasn’t bluffing when he said there would be retaliation for crossing of the red lines. The most serious, and under-looked, aspect of this is the implied tit-for-tat potential for facilitating North Korea’s ability to strike the U.S. in nuclear fashion...
..One suggestion making the rounds is the potential to supply the Russian Army with North Korea’s devastating KN-25 600mm MLRS system, which is basically the NK version of an ATACMS…
..Grossly-out-produced in a war-of-attrition… The Western commentariat continues to center their entire future victory hopes on the fact that the West is allegedly “increasing production”, which they desperately tie into the narrative that a year or so in the future the combined manufacturing powers of Europe and the U.S. will match or overtake Russia and it will be game over for Putin.
The problem this, as the below Korean excerpt shows, Russia is not only increasing production itself in line with the West, and arguably even faster, but Russia’s allies have massive manufacturing capacities for key munitions that dwarf anything the West will be capable of in the next decade or more...
..Seoul has detected at least 10,000 shipping containers being sent from North Korea to Russia, potentially holding up to 4.8 million artillery shells, South Korean Defence Minister Shin Won-sik told Bloomberg…
..Russia is going to be covered for the long term, and in fact its industrialists are already looking ahead to a post war future in line with Putin and Belousov’s initiative to integrate the war economy into the development of the civilian one...
..Zelensky, for one, remains upbeat and appears to believe he has an inexhaustible supply of men…
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-62024-putin-signs-defense

As Putin visits, Vietnam says will boost ties with Russia for global peace
Russian president says strengthening strategic partnership with Vietnam is one of his country’s priorities.
..Vietnam was “very keen to make … Putin feel welcome but at the same time they do have strong relationships with China and the US they want to protect”.
The Russian leader concluded a defence pact with North Korea a day earlier. But in Vietnam, he only signed deals to further cooperation on education, science and technology, energy, climate change and health.
“Weapons will be discussed but not those going to Russia but those coming into Vietnam,” Cheng said. “The Vietnam military is still very heavily reliant on Russian-made arms, but they found it increasingly difficult to get them, particularly since the war in Ukraine started.”…
..Meanwhile, Russia is important to Vietnam for two reasons, Giang said: It is the biggest supplier of military equipment to the Southeast Asian nation, and Russian oil exploration technologies help maintain its sovereignty claims in the contested South China Sea.
“Russia is signaling that it is not isolated in Asia despite the Ukraine war, and Vietnam is reinforcing a key traditional relationship even as it also diversifies ties with newer partners,” Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow with the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, told AP. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/20/as-putin-visits-vietnam-says-will-boost-ties-with-russia-for-global-peace