"If it comes to the 30th of Nov and we get an after hours ann...

"If it comes to the 30th of Nov and we get an after hours ann with a further extension of the MOU, then Talga is in trouble."

Depends on what you mean by trouble. If you mean that the SP would drop in the short-term, then yes. But, that would just be a buying opportunity for the smart investors. Talga doesn't need a deal in place until Mid February. They can't break ground on the mine or refinery before permits, which aren't expected until Mar-May. Sooner would be nicer, but, in the long-run, it's more important that Talga gets the right deal than the quickest deal. If delaying means we get a better deal, then it will mean a higher SP in the future.

That being said, I currently expect the deal by the end of the month, because I haven't seen anything that makes me think otherwise. At some point in any negotiation, both sides put all their cards on the table and you either make a deal or you don't. They've had months to negotiate so I expect that point has to be soon.