Some of key points in the 2016 Corporate plan:
- Fixed wireless coverage increased from 554,000 to ~590,000.
- A capacity upgrade program is scheduled to be initiated in FY17 to enhance network performance. I do recall that this could require replacing a component of the NTC equipment but without any details of what the enhancement is I will wait for further developments.
- Compared to the previous corporate plan, the speed of the roll-out has increased by ~5%.
- NBNCo sees the take-up rates advancing from 18% in JUN-15 to 26% by JUN-16, 34% by JUN-17 and 41% by JUN-18. I do consider this take-up rates to be quite aggressive but they are also consistent with NTC's expectations.
The report is very positive for NTC and supports the view that the NBN contract will deliver significant revenue for the next 3 years. I did mention in a previous post that I thought this year would be NTC’s best year in terms of NBN revenue but now that NBNCo has raised their take-up rate expectations I have changed by view. My NBN revenue estimates for NTC based on the latest corporate plan estimates are between $25-35M pa for FY-16, FY-17 and FY-18. This estimate excludes NBN fixed broadband revenue and any revenue potentially derived from the enhancement project.
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