nbn doesn't need telstra?, page-4

TLS is obviously better off at 'some price' rolling over their copper assets to the NBN and riding on the back of ultimately superior 21st century NBN like their competitors. Commercially it makes no sense to give the copper assets to the NBN for nothing, there is still money to be made for a number of years. There are 4 outcomes;

win-win (copper/ducts to NBN at fair price)
win-lose (copper/ducts to NBN at too low a price)
lose-win (copper/ducts to NBN at too high a price)
lose-lose. (duplicated ducts/networks & competition)

The gov obviously wants the copper/ducts for next to nothing and has brought enormous pressure to the negotiating table. At some price point though the copper is worth more to TLS in run down mode including structural seperation and whatever vinditive penalties the gov can force through. I assume the gov will reach a reasonable deal at the eleventh hour because they know shareholders will only go so low before it ends up in court, in competition and in bad will from a large part of the electorate.

My advice to Conroy is don't overplay your hand. He has done a masterful job turning the tables from Trulijo days, brought TLS to their knees at the negotiating table and can probably extract a win-lose deal (gov win) from the situation which can still be sold by TLS board to shareholders as a win-win given comensurate rise in share price. I suspect it is actually a fine line between win-lose and lose-lose for the gov who badly needs some positive press and some 'can-do' reputational mending. I also suspect the time both parties must deal or walk away back to the trenches is drawing nigh.

cheers