After spending 1.5 hours reading the document below, I can...

After spending 1.5 hours reading the document below, I can highly recommend reading it.

http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco/documents/NBNCo_Fixed_Wireless_and_Satellite_Review_07052014.pdf

Whilst the future direction of the fixed wireless roll-out is still not clear, the document is extremely positive for NTC. Some points to note:

- If required spectrum is not obtained, approximately 80,000 premises will fall out of the fixed wireless foot print.
- Expected take-up rate for fixed wireless raised from 22% to 55%.
- The NTC WNTD device costs NBNCo approximately $500.
- A future upgrade to 50Mbps may require replacement of the radio component of NTC's WNTD device (a nice revenue earner for NTC).
- A portion of the satellite footprint will need to be replaced by fixed wireless. The only question now is how much?
- Possibility of 350,000 premises being moved from FTTx to fixed wireless.
- Possibility of sharing towers with network operators to reduce costs.

There are many possibilities so trying to estimate future revenue for NTC is difficult but at a take-up rate of 55% and a unit cost of $500, you can pick a number between $130M and $250M.

I will go one step further and suggest the NBN rollout is the primary reason for the rally. The NBN review was released on 13-Dec-13. The rally started 1-2 weeks prior suggesting the usual "leaks" and since 13-Dec-13 the share price has increased 250%. I don't believe the rally is due to an expected increase in M2M sales because there is no evidence to support this theory. All the M2M partnerships, including Vodafone's, do not guarantee or quantify revenue. I doubt NTC's market cap has grown to $90M based solely on future M2M revenue optimism.