NCM chart, page-24

All of what you say may be correct, but if the market thinks gold is going up (which it looks very possibly set to do) you will also be arguing against new positive sentiment. The chart (TA) factors in everything you've stated (i.e. "the market knows") but so far, sentiment has been only warm at best in my view and could heat up a lot more. NCM is the big daddy of Aussie gold stocks - no escaping that fact.

It's the old story of course ....