There's an interesting guy called Professor Richard Werner,...

There's an interesting guy called Professor Richard Werner, who's obviously well credentialed and emperically anchored, who has a hypothesis that the Central Banks (he noted Euro specifically) are driving rates down to help bankrupt commerical banks and then pivot to a digitalised (bank crypto) system where the central banks are the only show in town - consolidation of power using efficient technology. The sovietisation of the banking system.

Haven't done sufficient cross referencing research to feel comfortable he's right but its an interesting thesis, which he's based on previous attempts in Europe and Japan + current movements of capital flows.

Irrespective, M2 Money velocity is in a long term downward trend with every money printing event, which is important, because its an input into real GDP growth.



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US GDP trending downward (lower peaks) despite all of the money expansion.



Add near zero or negative interest rates to the mix + small to medium business and consumer insolvency risks and the banks will be under significant margin pressure.

Large companies CFOs are currently looking at their balance sheets, which are burden with massive debt and falling revenue, and are producing the spreadsheet of names to exit - timing is circa Sept once the stimulus packages have run out. OZ may be a little different, but our market is obviously highly senstive to the US and follows like a 3 year old child, although we do have the China lurgy.

The market has been propped up over the past few year in the US (mostly), with share buybacks, but this will be limited given FED liquidity intervention and it being politically unpalatable for executives to do so... although there will be sleight of hand for those looking to move to chapter 11 - Hertz for instance.

Now Trump is threatening the Tech sector, which has for the most part lead the market, so nothing like a little bit of doubt with respect to their longer term commercial structure to cause off investment inputs.

Add China and Hong Kong - which should become clear with the Trumps speech on the topic tomorrow - I don't think he's likely to be accomodating to China's ideaology and in particular given it was always agreed there would be two systems. Throw into the mix the virus rhetoric blame game, which is being politicized to save ones skin in an election year + the much broader geopolitical game which is for real now the US has woken to its ludicrious philosophy of democratisation of China through trade and allowing it to participate in world institutions. They certainly have become very diplomatically biligerent lately.

All adds up to a pretty risky equity investment thesis, without Werner's insight, and long term, outstanding for gold.