NCM Price

I am short on NCM put options at strike = $30 and strike = $30.50. My gut feeling says to cut my losses and buy back the put options.
But I thought about it for a while with the following reasoning: Back in May the price of gold was US$1300 and NCM was $25. Gold went to US$1550 and NCM went to $40. In the absence of significant developments in NCM operations or outlook, it seems reasonable that the NCM share price should fall with the price of gold at a SIMILAR rate as it rose. ie if the price of gold goes back to US$1300 then the NCM share price should go back to $25 plus or minus a bit, say $24 to $26. Especially since the price of gold and the price of NCM had roughly stabilised by the month of May.

I'll save you the maths. Ignoring currency fluctuations, at the present gold price of US$1450 I reckon the price of NCM should be about $34. and the share price should not fall to $25 until gold is once again at US$1300. So it seems a little overdone that NCM is at $28 instead of $34 and perhaps I will just cop being exercised on my options and wait for NCM to get back to $30. That is, after Goldman Sachs and their mates have made sufficient money from their sell recommendation.

Maybe the most contentious point is my claim that nothing much has happened in NCM operations or outlook. Feel free to politely correct me if you think I am wrong. One explanation I have considered is simply that markets always overshoot. $40 was an overshoot and the correction is now overdone. I Welcome your comments.