Just announced by Adams Intelligence
"China sets 2019H1 rare earth mining quota at 60,000 tonnes and smelting/separation quota at 57.500 tonnes, exactly half of last year's entire year quota. Second quota to be announced before end of June."
Which confirms Roskill's projection of the supply/ demand dynamic for 2020 and onwards, interestingly this shows no attempt by the Chinese to correct the market shortfall created by the shutdown of Lynas's plant in Malaysia. There is only one way for prices to go now and it's not sideways.
Given the commitment by European (and now Australian) Governments to move to 50% EV by 2030, I can almost predict that a "Feeding frenzy" for NdPr shares will erupt once the General population becomes aware of how tight the supply side is. Any major manufacturer whose product is dependent on a consistent supply of electric motors/generators; would be reckless if they are not already looking to secure some leverage on the future availability of these soon to be critical, commodities.
And we have not even considered the Strategic demand side yet ! If/When Trump realises that Nd and Pr are crucial for US security, we could easily see a doubling in price while they build up stockpile.
