Hmmmmmm..............more solid interest here today and a nice close..........technicals say overbought and needing a moment to consolidate recent gains perhaps??.............but who knows..........if this type of buying interest keeps up...........200MA on the up and MACD bullish.....there are a few TA indicators marking this as possibly continuing the bullish move up imo.
Anyway, the current 'circus' surrounding LYC, the Malaysian govt., WES, Lynas's major backers, along with heavy weight investors such as Greencape getting cranky...............where does this all leave PM8 I wonder..........?
This excerpt from SMH article re LYC:
"the company would have to invest in another processing plant, most likely in Western Australia where it mines the rare earth ores, and might still be required to remove any waste material from Malaysia"...........
So, (while a lot more complex than this simple statement), the whole 'debacle' looks far from over or even relatively close to a speedy resolution (even if LYC are taken over in the near term imo)..........this essentially means REE's (via a 'LYC proxy') should continue to occupy the headlines for a while to come as things develop................such exposure/headlines should drive interest in the sector even if it is only 'vicarious in nature' for many investors.
PM8 are looking to deliver PFS in September, plus resource upgrades and list on LSE following consolidation right around the time when LYC had originally expected to have its license to continue operating approved........................however, now the upshot for PM8 is confidence in a positive outcome for Lynas is continuing to be eroded, while, in general REE's are grabbing some 'headlines'.........
Money will be 'moved' when confidence is ebbing and headlines are being made (especially negative ones)............but even positive news like an increased T.O bid might solidify 'fence sitters' into taking the plunge here (or elsewhere) in anticipation of further gyrations involving REE the sector.
I would expect some interesting developments re supply and demand dynamics in the REE space to unfold over the next 6-18 months depending upon what China 'do' and how LYC ends up of course, as the need/demand for permanent magnet drive trains isn't going away (among other applications). I might also expect more 'corporate movement' and jockeying in terms of 'significant holders', as REE/EV focused investment funds might look to 'other players' as alternatives for REE exposure (Fidelity are already on that train here).
PM8 have a very nice initial 'jumping off point'.................and an easy to achieve business model, all things considered.
Mcap sitting at $28mill, while sporting a high‐grade 'weathered zone' resource estimate (which represents less than 10% of the total Mineral Resource estimate) 'weighing in' at: 22.9 million tonnes..................grading at 4.16% REO including .86% NdPr...............containing 953,000 tonnes REO including 197,000 tonnes of NdPr) using a 0.65% NdPr lower cut off...............
Then there is the 'overall' MRE to consider which is currently listed as: 240 million tonnes at 1.60% REO including 0.35% NdPr for 3,850,000 tonnes of REO including 840,000 tonnes of NdPr.......
This should (imo) develop into a 'high confidence' world class concentrate production project in both size and grade relatively rapidly. Infill drilling results should be close to being delivered and that could really be the first step in bolstering investor sentiment surrounding the project, (shouldn't be too long now as drilling was commenced before 19th Feb, perhaps we might even see some advances on met work/concentrate production soon also).
My point really..............(sorry for the rambling, I do like to ramble)..........is summed up below.
Right when PM8 are rapidly advancing (perhaps one of the worlds 'top' potential REE projects) LYC is stymied for all intents and purposes, and look like remaining so into the foreseeable future, while other players are also looking at very significant capex expenditure/funding requirements and long lead times to get their projects moving..............not so for PM8............'cheaper and faster' to the market is the idea here I feel..........
Whether Lynas T.O happens or not, whoever ends up 'holding the LYC bag' will need significant time and probably capital injection to bring the 'full business' back online imo, this will impact the REE sector (just exactly how is anyone's guess). Tighter supply and price movements seem a natural upshot with China moving their production quotas about also......................(but with China you just never know what they might pull out of the REE hat)........
REE companies are 'enjoying the spotlight' right now at least.........and PM8 have many possible value catalysts lining up between now and September/years end. Consider also that the London listing, (not too soon after consolidation), could be pitched 'right in the sweet spot' for various reasons, including timing, appetite for EU investors wanting REE exposure, project financing needs and so on.
The PM8 picture looks good from where I'm sitting (just my rambling take on these things dyor and so on).
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