Your post is the exact reason why I fact check most posts I see...

Your post is the exact reason why I fact check most posts I see on HC. Attached is a spreadsheet I put together in 30 minutes that proves this statement to be very misleading. In 8 out of the 11 initiation reports issued from July 2016 to the end of last year, the base target set by NDF was hit. In one of those cases, all three targets were smashed. Only three are yet to be met. I wouldn't expect the mid or high targets to be met yet for anything issued over the past two years, but hitting the base target this many times is a decent track record.

If you only checked the most recent reports, you're not allowing time for the targets to play out. For example, the most recent report NDL released prior to POH was IVQ on 20 April 2018. If you rate NDF as a failure because its SP target wasn't met in three months, with respect, you may wish to undertake further study on how this investing thing works.

If the POH base case target is hit, that's a 250% return from current levels. Based on the hit rate of NDF shown in the attached, a person could assume POH has a 72% chance of hitting that within 6-24 months. Such assumptions are entirely up to you.

And yes, the SP may have fluctuated since. These are biotech stocks. They are inherently volatile as the company goes through its various stages of trials and (hopefully) commercialisation. Targets could be met and the SP could then head south, where it languishes until the next phase of the company's strategy is executed. That's how it all works.