ndo npv calc

Has onyone on this forum actually done an NPV calculation for Nido. I have, using US$60 crude price for life of project; Nido's announced production profile for Galoc; capex of US$120m to allow for overrun (last public guidance was up to US$90m gross in May 06); US$220m in "tax shield" for past sunk costs; full taxed using corp tax rate; a 10% discount rate and first production at end of CY07 (projects in this environment rarely come in on time). Diluting for the recently announced convertible (yes i know its out of the money at 26c) i get US$0.12c/share of A$0.16c at spot FX. Current share price is therefore fully factoring successful execution of Galoc and/or higher for longer crdue prices (which i agree with) and clearly some exploration optionalilty (entirely reasoable). To get share price moving i believe you would need incremental news on the other assets ie West Linapacan A & B or a farm-in to the exploration acreage or a material reserve increase at Galoc that would materially change the production profile (but this would be offset to some degree by higher capex).

Use your own judgement, i dont own any shares and this is for discussion pruposes only. No advice is being offered