ndo npv calc, page-22

Kristy

Because i believe now is the time when small oil stocks are going to come to the fore - particularly for small cap fund managers sick of underperformance from stocks like TAP and ARQ. I have followed Nido for some time now and i noted the enthusiasm with which people here have for it so i decided to do a valuation myself and see what all the fuss is about. Now i have a model and if and when there is a reserve upgrade all i have to do is plug in my new production profile and spit out a new NPV. if it says the NPV is 40c then its buy time. I am not just going to sit on a position and cross my finges - you have to know as accurately as possible what the upside is. For me its all about ranking stocks with a risk and vs upside. I like NDO but it does not make sense for me to buy it when i can buy other stocks with similar risk profiles which have upside that is almost a multiple of the current share price ie. AED. Or stocks like AZA that have same upside but very very little downside in terms of project risk & valuation at least (we saw back in May that even very cheap stocks like AZA even go down when mkts turn). I am all about protecting the downside when i buy stocks and going long stocks with maximum upside.