ARU (ASX) NdPr Chinese pricing

Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

Given our subtle fall in SP is directly related to Chinese manipulation of NdPr pricing and the pricing is indeed the catalyst for ARU moving forward time for a topic on such.

First point is to understand why Chinese Gov are doing such. Remember this is not the first time as Lynas experienced similar in early days - which of course is a guide to what is occurring here now regarding Chinese NdPr rapid price falls.
So why - simply the Chinese want to maintain control as long as possible of their REO monopoly which is rapidly diminishing and clearly by rapidly lowering REO pricing it has two implications - one to show end users we can supply at lowest pricing possible and we can increase supply at any given time (don't worry the likes of Tesla and other end users have little concern where their supply comes from only on profits and competitive advantage which can only be beneficial in certain countries).
We are aware of Chinese 20% increased REO quotas - the rapidly falling export sales (down 8% in March alone as other global players such as Lynas increase supply) and China are not happy so lowering REO pricing is the only tool they have to "TRY" and knock off the competition and those arriving soon to production - the ECE (Chinese GOV owned) dumping of ARU at this particular time - on market - is just another ploy to create doubt - uncertainty that ARU can indeed secure financing - clearly the Chinese Gov are incredibly astute and pull all stops so lowering rapidly the NdPr pricing in particular and dumping 5%+ of ARU is damaging indeed to ARU at this poignant time however to:

Second point is it will pass just as before - future global REO pricing will be exclusive of China's manipulation - they will become irrelevant - Clearly China is losing market share rapidly and thus their pricing will only apply to their domestic and their rogue countries/end users where their markets and whilst other global suppliers LYC,ARU,ILU example) will increasingly supply the key REO elements required to the G7 Nations and others - as we know the West immediately requires - is seeking/sourcing supply outside of China for all the reasons known and those G7 etc end users are understanding of the current manipulation and non ESG compliance etc. Fact is this Chinese Gov ploy - as practiced hard with Lynas in the past will run out of powder because the West simply are only to aware of Chinese control and manipulation objectives and obviously in the case of ARU their exit will be complete in due course. Basically what is occurring is a last ditch effort for their desperate attempts to be disruptive and remain the dominant controller.

Third point - the West are far smarter and knowingly - they can not believe a word China states. They are extremely coercive (quiet normal and credit to them in the geo political landscape - new silk road for example and just plucking out fake mega billions to throw out to poorer nations for their entry of self benefit only) and the Russian OIL/GAS situation is a position no G7 member wishes to endure given lessons learned in recent/current issues. Add to this the Chinese using their coercive skills in dealing ex USD with various countries and that list growing - this is becoming a more divided global trading world we are seeing - but for REO'S it will make China irrelevant in REO to the G7 and others (look no further than the South Korean and now German key early entry into ARU. Global trading is going through an extreme shift - so to is the minerals supply chain - look at the news on sharp fall of iron ore prices last week of China having another strategy - even if it costs more - well same applies with REO supply to G7 and others.

Anyway very intelligent persons/companies engaged both in the ARU team and the known end user teams of South Korea and Germany at this point (more to follow) are only to aware of the status of the situation and I for one anticipate mid year finance timelines for Nolan's finance closure to remains firm. All parties know time is becoming critical and other potential even if fast tracked remain many, many years away.

In my view until such time ECE are fully divested (must be soon?) and until finance is binding the SP may continue to remain far below "fair value" which is only short term. Meantime a mountain of project works increasing from final engineering studies (I like some considerable cost saving changes being made which is excellent in the high cost/inflationary environment we are in) - many new contracts being awarded or about to be with other contracts being offered for tender. There are always bumps along the way to such a LSM and processing plant however they are being ironed out and the external issues will pass - become irrelevant and will be long forgotten as always. Sorry for long ramble and even off topic a bit there with REO pricing topic but the point I am making is clear - yes we cheered on high REO pricing but as we see global trade and commodity supply chains shifting - China's REO pricing will matter not in the near/medium future.

Expand

4th point, the demand of NdPr in the next decades will be HUGE regardless China ban its export or not?
( By the way, the reason that ECE is deinvesting could be its financial issue instead of a gov impact, as it would rather buy more if for competitive reason?)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
86	2440817	15.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

2440817

15.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
15.5¢	261761	16

Price($)

Vol.

No.

15.5¢

261761

No.	Vol.	Price($)
86	2440817	0.150
35	1440897	0.145
38	2498436	0.140
16	886739	0.135
14	1186683	0.130

No.

Vol.

Price($)

2440817

0.150

1440897

0.145

2498436

0.140

886739

0.135

1186683

0.130

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.155	261761	16
0.160	1770050	25
0.165	1353281	39
0.170	946642	23
0.175	1006401	17

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.155

261761

0.160

1770050

0.165

1353281

0.170

946642

0.175

1006401

(20min delay)
Last 15.5¢		Change 0.005(3.33%)		Mkt cap ! $377.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
15.0¢	15.5¢	15.0¢	$157.9K	1.035M

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