Throughout I'm referring to the ex-China industry here.
The question essentially, relates to the economics and potential production of NdFeB magnets which are, of course, Lynas' bread and butter.
The key growth applications are automotive and wind turbines. Both (especially auto) require magnets capable of operating at high temperatures.
There are many methods to achieve this but (nearly) all require the addition of HRE (Dy or Tb) to the mix.
The limited supply of these HRE raises the qn: can supply meet the needs of the NdFeB industry and who's going to meet that need?
My view is that Lynas' production of HRE and LRE are pretty much in balance to supply the ex-China high end magnet industry once their HRE separation in Texas is operating (due 2025).
But only using the HRE thrifting methods such as GBD. (Much of the debate has been about how applicable such methods are to these applications.)
Let's assume all these tech challenges work out as I believe they have already.
Then Lynas is a strategic cornerstone for the ROW's electrification. They will be the ONLY 1-stop shop for the magnet materials underlying this seismic realignment of global tech. Sure, competitors will emerge, but RE is a very difficult business and their head start a huge advantage. They are currently in a massive expansion phase (funded by $1bn cash in hand) and making a 100% profit margin on their current production.
Effect on share price?
Personally, I'm invested heavily.
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